NFL Picks: Early Betting Rundown for All Week 10 Matchups

Kevin Stott

Tuesday, November 10, 2015 1:03 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 10, 2015 1:03 PM UTC

It’s Week 10 of the NFL Season and the Point Spreads & Totals for most of the week’s 14 games are now out, so let’s take a look at games where the early numbers give some small edge.

Thursday, November 12, 2015
Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets -3, 42 (Pinnacle)
The Buffalo Bills (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) head to MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey next Thursday night to face the New York Jets (5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) in this Week 10 AFC East showdown which is extremely important to both teams. When these two teams met last year, the Bills swept both SU and ATS, winning 43-23 at MetLife as 3-point underdogs and 38-3 as 3-point favorites at Home and Buffalo is 4-1 ATS the L5 in this series. Both teams have some Injury issues with Jets starting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick reportedly planning on having surgery on his injured Left Thumb on Friday (and having to lean on backup QB Geno Smith) and C Nick Mangold (Neck, Questionable) both Injured and Bills starter Tyrod Taylor dealing with some physical issues of his own and RB LeSean McCoy (Shoulder) leaving Sunday’s Win over the Jaguars. When these two teams met last year, the Bills swept both SU and ATS, winning 43-23 at MetLife as 3-point underdogs and 38-3 as 3-point favorites at Home and Buffalo is 4-1 ATS the L5 in this series. On Thursdays, Buffalo (0-3 ATS the L3 games it has played on Thursdays) is 2-3 both SU and ATS as Road underdogs while the Jets are 3-5 SU and 5-2 ATS as Road favorites. The Westgate Las Vegas renowned NFL Games of the Year released late each Spring had the Bills and WR Sammy Watkins (162 receiving yards on Sunday) open up as 1-point favorites in this game. The Bills can win this and +3 looks tempting for my NFL picks.

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Sunday, November 15, 2015
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers -11½, 47½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
The Green Bay Packers (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) welcome the Detroit Lions (1-7 SU, 1-7 ATS)—the team with both the worst SU and ATS records in the NFL—to Lambeau Field in Green Bay on Sunday in this Week 10 NFC North affair which has lost some luster with the Lions recent decline. Detroit got rid of its President and General Manager last week and Head Coach Jim Caldwell and QB Matthew Stafford may eventually be on their way out of Motown, so it’s time to usher in the Jim Bob Cooter Era (James Robert Cooter if you’re sexy) brother and keep mocking this declining NFC North football team. When these two played last season, the Packers lost 19-7 as 1½-point underdogs in Week 3 at Ford Field in Detroit and then covered by a point as 10-point chalks in Week 17 here in Green Bay, winning 30-20. The Packers are 6-2 ATS the L8 ATS against the Lions and 4-0 ATS the L4 here at Lambeau Field winning by 4, 7, 13 and 10 points but QB Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will go to this game with a hobbled and unproductive RB Eddie Lacy (Groin, Probable), are without their most productive Offensive player this season (WR Jordy Nelson) and have to be feeling a little beat up and dejected after back-to-back Losses to the Broncos in Denver and the Panthers in Charlotte on Sunday. The margin of victory (Green Bay) here should be around 15+ points with the hosts bitter and needing the victory to restore order in Brown County. The Westgate Las Vegas NFL Games of the Year had the Packers 10½-point favorites released in the late Spring.

NFL Pick: Packers -11 at Heritage

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Dallas Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2, 43 (Pinnacle)
Raymond James Stadium in Tampa is the site of this Week 10 inter-divisional NFL tilt between Dez Bryant and the Dallas Cowboys (2-6 SU, 2-6 ATS) and the host Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS) and Rookie (Florida State) QB Jameis Winston in a game both teams really need the Win in to have any chance of rallying in Weeks 11-17 and making the NFC Playoffs. The Cowboys will still be without QB Tony Romo (Collarbone, Injured-Reserve List) so backups Matt Cassel will likely get the start here again. The last time these two teams met, visiting Dallas defeated the Buccaneers 16-10 in Tampa but failed to cover (by 1) as 7-point favorites in 2012 while in the last meeting here in South Florida in 2009, the Cowboys won 35-21, covering as 5½-point favorites. Dallas is 4-1 ATS the L5 in this series. The Cowboys were 1-points favorites on the Advanced Line, so you can see what the Cowboys Loss to the Eagles combined with the Buccaneers did to perceptions. Dallas LB Sean Lee suffered a Concussion in the Eagles game on Sunday.

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Carolina Panthers -4, 42 vs. Tennessee Titans 
QB Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers (8-0 SU, 6-2 ATS) knocked off the visiting Green Bay Packers, 37-29 at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte on Sunday in Week 9 play, so here against Rookie QB Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans (2-6 SU, 4-4 ATS) at LP Field in Nashville in Week 10, it will be a shift in a shift in competition talent and site, but for a team which has now beaten the Seattle Seahawks, Philadelphia Eagles, Indianapolis Colts and now the Packers back-to-back-to-back-to-back, stuffing the Titans this coming Sunday and putting them in the oven to be ready by Thanksgiving should be no problem. The Panthers are off to their best start ever, have won 11 straight Regular Season games and can smell that Home-field advantage in the NFC after the win over Green Bay and the Cardinals having to play in Seattle this weekend. Newton (15/30, 297, TD; 9 rushes, 57 yards, TD), TE Greg Olsen (4 receptions, 66 yards, TD) and RB Jonathan Stewart (20 rushes, 66 yards, 3.3 ypc) all did what they had to on Sunday but the narrative this team just has those three and makes work like a patchwork quilt are tired as WRs Jerricho Cotchery, Corey Brown, Ted Ginn Jr. and Michigan Rookie Devin Funchess actually provide a very nice Receiving Corps and all have stepped up in the absence of the injured star Kelvin Benjamin. When these two teams last met, the Titans won outright as 3-point underdogs in Charlotte, 30-3 in 2011 while in the last meeting here in Opryland, Tennessee also won and covered ATS, getting a 30-7 Win as 5½-point chalks. The Titans are 3-1 ATS the L4 meetings in this series but even after Sunday’s OT win over the Defenseless Saints in Louisiana, Tennessee is a poor team with a new Head Coach—the Titans fired Ken Whisenhunt and promoted Mike Mularkey to interim Head Coach last Tuesday—which has gone 2-6 this year, and went 3-20 SU and 4-18-1 ATS under Whisenhunt. That’s not good.

NFL Pick: Panthers -4  at Pinnacle

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Chicago Bears vs. St. Louis Rams -8½, 42½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Jay Cutler and the Chicago Bears (2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS; at Chargers on Monday Night Football; NFL odds; Chargers -4, 49½, (Pinnacle) head to St. Louis on Sunday afternoon to face the upstart Rams (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) and sensational Georgia Rookie RB Todd Gurley (118 rushes, 664 yards, 4 TDs). The last time these two NFC teams met, the Rams (6-2 Unders) and WR Tavon Austin defeated Chicago, 42-21 in 2013 here at the Edward Jones Dome in the Gateway City, easily covering the 2½-point spread in 2013 while in 2012, the Bears won 23-6, in Chicago, covering ATS as 7-point favorites in the Windy City. The Bears are 5-2 ATS the L7 against St. Louis and Chicago is 3-1 ATS the L4 on the Road at St. Louis, that lone cover for the Rams coming in that aforementioned last meeting. This could be a good game and the Bears—who will again be without veteran RB Matt Forte—may push the Rams here and the 8½-point Spread seems awfully steep in a game in which Chicago (+195 Money Line, SIA) can possibly win, although they will be coming of just 5 Days Rest after playing on MNF and travelling from San Diego back to the Midwest. The Rams are dreaming of a possible Wild Card spot but the Bears could give a rat’s ass and could very win this with Cutler out-dueling Rams QB Nick Foles.

NFL Pick: Bears +8½ at Bet365

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New Orleans Saints -1, 50½ vs. Washington Redskins
The New Orleans Saints (4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS) head to FedExField in Landover, Maryland to face the Washington Redskins (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS) in this inter-divisional Week 10 NFC matchup which could actually be an important Win for the ultimate victor. Right? (I know. They’re both probably done.) When these two last met, the Redskins won 40-32 at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in Week 1 of the 2012 season, covering outright as 8-point underdogs while the last meeting here in Landover in 2009, New Orleans and then still-young Saints QB Drew Brees won 33-30 but failed to cover ATS as big 9-point Road favorites. What dat? Dat your Money going ‘Poof!’ The Redskins are 4-0 ATS the L4 in this series and with New Orleans losing to Tennessee at Home, 34-28 in OT in The Big Easy on Sunday in Week 9, maybe they find a way to win here but my first instinct here, as in most Saints games, would be to look to the Over (50½, Pinnacle) although New Orleans Overs are only 5-4 ATS so far this season. There look like much better games on the board this week.

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Miami Dolphins vs. Philadelphia Eagles -6½, 47 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
The Miami Dolphins (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS) head north to the City of Brotherly Love on Sunday to play the Philadelphia Eagles (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) in an inter-conference matchup which could prove to be a tough setback for the ultimate loser, and could be it for the Fish if they fall. When these two last met in 2011 in Miami Gardens, the Eagles won outright 26-10 as 3-point road underdogs while in the last meeting here in Philadelphia at Lincoln Financial Field in 2007, the Eagles won 17-7, barely covering the 9½-point spread by ½ (point). Head Coach Chip Kelly’s side is a sparkling 5-0 ATS the L5 in this somewhat infrequent series and is worth consideration here as they can actually win their lousy NFC East division.

NFL Pick: Eagles -6 at BetOnline

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Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers -4½, 41 (Pinnacle)
Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger (Doubtful) suffered a mild Foot Sprain so the Steelers (5-4 SU, 4-3-2 ATS) may go with have to go with third-stringer Landry Jones with second-stringer Michael Vick (Hamstring, Questionable) and Bruce Gradkowski (Hand) on the Injured-Reserve List all season. Here in Week 10 at Heinz Field in the Steel City, the Steelers host (possibly) Josh McCown or maybe Johnny Manziel and the Cleveland Browns (2-7 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) in an AFC North game which may now be considered a must-win game for Pittsburgh and Head Coach Mike Tomlin (72-69-4 ATS). When these two met last season, Pittsburgh won 30-27 at Home in Week 1 but failed to cover as 5-point favorites while in the meeting in Cleveland, the Browns defeated the Steelers and covered as 2½-point favorites. The Advanced Line here was (Steelers minus) 7, so you can see what Big Ben’s injury did to perceptions and the number and you’d think without Roethlisberger and RB Le’Veon Bell, Pittsburgh would be limited on Offense but with prolific players like superstar WR Antonio Brown and RB DeAngelo Williams combining for the second-most total yards in the NFL since 1960. Lean Steelers with the opponent (Cleveland Browns), site (Home), situation (need Win) and perceived value in the Point Spread in the difference (2½) it’s changed from that Advanced Line.

NFL Pick: Steelers -4 at Bookmaker

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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Baltimore Ravens -6, 48½ (William Hill) (CBS, Directv 705, NFL RedZone, 1 p.m. EST/10 a.m. PST): The Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6 SU, 4-4 ATS) head to M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore this Sunday afternoon to play the Ravens (2-6 SU, 1-6-1 ATS) in this AFC inter-divisional meeting between two teams unlikely to make the Postseason. Jacksonville and QB Blake Bortles have improved some this season, but still find themselves in the bottom five or six teams in the NFL while Ravens QB and University of Delaware product Joe Flacco and the Ravens will come in well-rested (13 Days) off their Bye Week, as will be host Baltimore who are without veteran WR Steve Smith (Achilles, Injured-Reserve List) who is now out for the season injured. The last time these two met was last season where the Ravens defeated Jacksonville, 2-12 but failed to cover ATS as big 13½-point favorites. The Jaguars are 3-1 ATS the L4 overall in this series but the Ravens are 3-1 ATS the L4 games here in Crab City, the lone (ATS) Loss in that aforementioned meeting last year. Baltimore and QB Joe Flacco will be looking to explode on someone after facing an extremely nasty schedule from Weeks 1-8, and with the Jaguars having lost an NFL-high 12 straight Road games to date and going 4-7-1 ATS over that span, these Cats from the Florida may be the perfect team on which to explode.

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Minnesota Vikings vs. Oakland Raiders -2½, 42½
This exciting Week 10 game from Coliseum in Oakland ony has odds up in a sportsbook or two right now with the status of Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater for this game still undetermined after the Louisville product took a late elbow to the hemet from Rams DB Lemarcus Joyner in Sunday’s OT win for the Purple People Eaters in Minneapolis. Bridgewater (Concussion) reportedly passed the first phase of the NFL’s Concussion Protocol on Monday and will likely be good to go according to Vikings Head Coach Mike Zimmer (10-6 ATS) this Sunday afternoon in Week 10 when Minnesota (6-2 SU, 7-1 ATS) headis west to face the upstart Raiders (4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS) who had their own key cog in the Offense (RB Latavius Murray) also suffer a Concussion on Sunday in his team’s OT Loss at Pittsburgh. Minnesota will be losing 2 Body Clock Hours (CST to PST) here and the last time these two played here in Oakland was an ancient 12 years ago and the venue was Network Associates Coliseum and the Raiders won 28-18 while the last time they met was in 2011 in Minneapolis where Oakland won 27-21 and covered ATS as 2-point underdogs. The Raiders are 3-1 ATS the L4 in this infrequent series and with QB David Carr, Murray, Alabama Rookie Amari Cooper, Taiwan Jones, Michael Crabtree and Marcel Reece, can hang with almost anyone Offensively in the NFL when healthy and humming. A new day has dawned in Oaktown.

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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos -6, 41½ (Pinnacle)
Thirty-nine-year-old QB Peyton Manning (74-69-2 ATS at Home) and the Denver Broncos (7-1 SU, 5-2-1 ATS ) welcome QB Alex Smith and the Kansas City Chiefs (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS) to Sports Authority Field in Denver on Sunday afternoon for this Week 10 AFC West showdown in the Rocky Mountains and huge game for the visiting Chiefs who will only be losing an hour going from CST to MST and coming in off 13 Days Rest off its Bye week but Kansas City does have to deal with playing the rest of the season without bullworker RB Jamaal Charles (Knee, Injured Reserve) as well as the 5,280-feet Altitude here in the Mile High City. The dominance Denver has shown at Home and the way LB Von Miller, LB Danny Trevathan (35 Combined Tackles) LB Brandon Marshall (47 Combined Tackles), CB Aqib Talib and the Denver Defense has been playing is intimidating although the Colts handed the previously unbeaten Broncos their first Loss on Sunday in Indianapolis in a game where Denver fell behind 17-0 then rallied to tie the game in the 2nd Half before falling to Andrew Luck, TY Hilton and the hosts, 27-24. In that game, Broncos 1st Quarter Unders won for an impressive 8th straight week as the Colts led 7-0 at the end of the first 15 minutes (Total: 7½). In play last season in this Broncos-Chiefs series, Denver won 29-16 failing to cover as 1-point underdogs at Arrowhead Stadium while in this game in Denver, the Broncos won 24-17 but failed to cover ATS as monster 24-17 chalks. This could be low-scoring but Denver at or under (minus) 7 seems good in this spot. They will be mad but may be without Talib who was been Suspended 1 game for his Poke in the Eye on Sunday but said on Monday that he will appeal the ruling.

NFL Picks: Broncos -6  & First Quarter Under 7½ at WillHill

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New England Patriots -7, 55 vs. New York Giants 
The New York Giants (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS) and QB Eli Manning welcome Tom Brady (67-46-1 ATS at Road) and the Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots (8-0 SU, 5-1-2 ATS) to MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey on Sunday afternoon for this Week 10 meeting and re-acquaintance of recent Super Bowl foes in the Garden State. The last time these two met was in 2011 in the Super Bowl—the Giants upset the Patriots, again—while the last meeting in New Jersey was back in 2007 where New England and Brady won 38-35 but failed to cover as huge 13½-point favorites. The Giants are an impressive 6-1 ATS the L7 in this series and a 3-0 ATS the L3 here at Home at MetLife Stadium. But with RB LeGarrette Blount, TE Rob Gronkowski, WR Julian Edelman and WR Danny Amendola and future Hall of Fame Head Coach Bill Belichick (159-115-9 ATS), expect the Patriots (+229 win Super Bowl, Paddy Power) to find a way to get a double-digit win here and probably remain undefeated although they will be without speedy RB Dion Lewis (Knee) who is out for the season it was announced Monday. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook SuperBook has this lined at Patriots -7 in its NFL Games of the Year.

NFL Pick: Patriots -7 at 5Dimes

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Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks -3, 45
The marquee game of Week 10, this massive NFC West primetime showdown sees the defending NFC champion Seattle Seahawks (4-4 SU, 2-5-1 ATS) heading to the Sonoran Desert and University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale to face the Arizona Cardinals (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS). Both teams will be coming in off their Bye weeks (13 Days Rest) but the Seahawks and QB Russell Wilson (9-13-1 ATS on Road) will definitely be needing this game much more than Arizona. when these two met last season, the Seahawks won 19-3 and covered as 7½-point favorites in Seattle while in this meeting in the Sonoran Desert, Seattle rolled to a 35-6 Win as 9-point favorites over the Cardinals and QB Carson Palmer (33-42-2 ATS at Home) as they closed hard to win the division. The Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in the L5 overall in this series and Seattle is also 4-1 ATS the L5 here in Glendale. The Seahawks are 4-4 ATS on the Road under the Sunday night lights while the Cardinals and WR Larry Fitzgerald are a dismal 4-14 ATS here at Home on Sunday nights in primetime. The Westgate Las Vegas NFL Games of the Year had the Seahawks 6-point favorites in this fiesta.

NFL Pick: Seahawks -3 at Bovada

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Monday, November 16, 2015
Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals -11, 47½ (MGM Mirage)
The Houston Texans (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS) head to Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati next Monday night to face QB Andy Dalton (41-34-1 ATS at Home) and the still unbeaten Cincinnati Bengals (8-0 SU, 7-0-1 ATS) in the Week 10 end-cap. The scuffling Texans—without RB Arian Foster for the rest of the season—will come in with 13 Days Rest off their Open Date while the upstart Bengals will also have had a nice, but not-as-lengthy 10 Days Rest after playing (and beating) their Ohio-rival the Browns on Thursday Night Football in Week 9 in the Queen City. When these two last met last season at NRG Stadium in Houston, JJ Watt and the Texans won and covered as 3-point underdogs (22-13) and these two also met in the AFC playoffs in 2012 where Houson eliminated Cincinnati, 19-13 as 3½-point underdogs in Houston. The last time these two met here in the Queen City, the Texans (0-7 ATS L7 all-time on Monday) upset the Bengals, covering as 3-point underdogs. The Texans are 6-1 ATS the L7 in this series and 3-1 ATS the L4 here in Cincinnati while Houston is 0-3 ATS as a Road Underdog on Monday nights while the Bengals are 3-2 ATS as Home Favorites (since 1980). The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook NFL Games of the Year had the Bengals as 7-point favorites in this contest which looked much better on the schedule six months ago. The Point Spread seems awfully high, but to fade the deep and confident Bengals when they’re on such a roll seems dangerous.

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NFL Week Open Dates: Atlanta Falcons, Indianapolis Colts, San Diego Chargers, San Francisco 49ers

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