NFL Picks: Eagles vs. Panthers Week 7 Total Line Preview & Prediction

Kevin Stott

Tuesday, October 20, 2015 3:14 PM GMT

Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2015 3:14 PM GMT

The Over is 6-3 in meetings between the Carolina Panthers & Philadelphia Eagles, with the L4 all going Over the Total.  So can we expect more of the same Sunday Night?

Odds Overview
What:
NFL Week 7—Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers
Where: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
When: Sunday, October 25, 2015 8:30 p.m. EDT/5:30 p.m.
Weather: Partly Clear Sky, Low: 54°F, Winds NNW 4 mph, 90% Relative Humidity
Current Low Point Spread: Panthers -2½ (BetOnline)
Current High Point Spread: Panthers -3½ (Westgate Las Vegas, SuperBook) 
Advanced Line: Panthers -2½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
NFL Games of the Year Line: Panthers -1½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Total in Marketplace: 47 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

Current Realities Heading Into This Game
Cam Newton (18-16-1 ATS at Home) and the Carolina Panthers (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) welcome Sam Bradford and the Philadelphia Eagles (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) to Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina on Sunday night for this Week 7 inter-divisional NFC tilt and huge game for both sides. Oddsmakers have made the host Panthers 2½- to 3½-point favorites here with the Total—only out in a couple of sportsbooks on Monday night with Philadelphia having played earlier in the night—at 47 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook). Against the Giants on Monday Night Football in Week 6), the Eagles rolled to an ugly 27-7 win a Turnover-riddled affair from the City of Brotherly Love and Robot Killers. This game should be good TV and Gridiron Theater as this Ron Rivera-coached (40-31-1 ATS) Carolina team tries to earn the Respect from Fans and other teams in the NFL it deserved about five years ago. These guys always play as a team, try to minimize mistakes and seldom have the kind of lapses we see like with the Eagles and Giants on Monday night in one of the most hideous displays of American Football. Coming off the Seahawks and that travel, Carolina could be a bit tired here, but that could be a good thing for an Eagles TD or more, helping this game go Over the posted 47 Total we see. And the Eagles will come in playing on just 5 Days of Rest (TWTFS). Anyway, here are the Final Scores from the nine lifetime meetings between the Panthers and Eagles, one in the NFC Championship Game (in Philadelphia and won by the Eagles) in the 2003-04 season.

 

Totals Results in the L9 (Only) Meetings — Philadelphia Eagles vs. Carolina Panthers
2014—@ Eagles 45 Panthers 21 Total: 48½ Result: Over
2012—Panthers 30 @ Eagles 22 Total: 41½ Result: Over
2009—Eagles 38 @ Panthers 10 Total: 43½ Result: Over
2006—Panthers 27 @ Panthers 24 Total: 37½ Result: Over
2004—@ Eagles 30 Panthers 8 Total: 41½ Result: Under
2004—@ Eagles 14 Panthers 3 (AFC Championship) Total: 36½ Result: Under
2003—@Panthers 25 Eagles 16 Total: 36½ Result: Over
1999—@ Panthers 33 Eagles 7 Total: 36 Result: Over
1996—@ Eagles 20 Panthers 9 Total: 38 Result: Under

 

Series Trends and Total Expectations
As you see from the Final Scores for the L9 meetings—and only 9 Regular Season meetings ever—between these two NFC teams, the Over went 6-3 ATS, with the L4 in a row all went Over the posted (closing) Total by an average of 10.5 ppg. And that was with a large bulk of those games played back in the days of the less progressive NFL when Passing wasn’t commonplace. The Under was actually 3-2 ATS in the first 5 meetings (1996-2004) between the Panthers (20/1 to win Super Bowl, Ladbrokes) and Eagles (28/1 to win Super Bowl, BetBright), with the first 3 of the 5 meetings coming at both teams’ old stadiums, Ericcson Stadium in Charlotte and Veterans Stadium in Philadelphia, the latter where they had actually had to assign a Municipal Court Judge to the stadium on game days to run “Eagles Court” for unruly fans in the stands. The judge for this court, Seamus McCaffery, was appointed the duty after the Eagles fans abhorrent behavior after a 1997 Monday Night Football loss to the San Francisco 49ers and a 34-0 pasting by the Dallas Cowboys a season later. Anyway, enough stadia judicial crap and back to the Trend, and the 6-3 Over with 4 straight Overs. When these two played last season, the Panthers were smashed, 45-21, in Philadelphia as 7½-point favorites while the last time the Eagles visited North Carolina, the Eagles trounced Carolina again, 38-10 as 2½-point favorites in Week 1 in 2009. So 24- and 28-point Wins for the NFC East side. Philadelphia is a nice 4-1 ATS the L5 vs. Panthers and the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Carolina up as 1½-point favorites in this one in their NFL Games of the Year while the Advanced Line had the host Panthers as 2½-point favorites. The Philadelphia Defense looked good in Monday night’s win over the Giants, but the Eagles did give up chunks of yards and Carolina has a more balanced attack with a better QB (Newton) and will be at Home and looking to defend its unbeaten mark. And for some reason, it seems primetime games have a tendency to go Over, with many clock stoppages and Pick-6’s—like on Monday night for Philadelphia and on Sunday night for the Colts. And with Bradford slinging for Philadelphia (11-12 ATS on the Road on Sunday nights) and Newton for Carolina (4-4 ATS at Home on Sunday nights), and so many nice scoring threats on both sides (WR Funchess, RB Stewart, TE Olsen—Panthers, RB DeMarco Murray, RB Ryan Mathews, WR Jordan Matthews, WR Riley Cooper, TE Zach Ertz, WR Miles Austin—Eagles), this should eventually evolve into a shootout no matter how good the Defense play, with one team (Eagles) desperately trying to avoid falling to 3-4 with a loss and the other (Panthers) desperately trying to protect its unblemished 5-0 record and the possibility a Home-field advantage in the NFC. Expect around 26-28 points per half here in The Tar Heel state and (hopefully) a really good game.

 

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Carolina Panthers 27 Philadelphia Eagles 24
NFL WEEK 7 TOTALS PICK: OVER 47 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

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