NFL Picks: Don't Follow in the Trap, Bet Lions +13 Against Packers

Jason Lake

Thursday, November 12, 2015 7:48 PM UTC

Thursday, Nov. 12, 2015 7:48 PM UTC

The Detroit Lions have already pulled the chute on 2015, but the Green Bay Packers might not have enough cheesy goodness to beat the NFL odds this Sunday.

Jason's 2015 record as of Nov. 11: 30-30-2 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 21-27 Total


Consternation and uproar~! Everyone saw what happened on the Green Bay Packers sideline during last week's 37-29 loss to the Carolina Panthers (+2 at home): LB Julius Peppers and safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix got into a heated conversation, then NT B.J. Raji got in between them to play peacemaker – until Raji ended up shoving Clinton-Dix and yelling at him. Fortunately, nobody threw a glass of wine in anyone's face.

The players involved say everything's been patched up, but where there's smoke, there's smoked Gouda. The Packers have lost back-to-back games, and they've dropped the cash in three straight heading into Sunday's matchup (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX) with the Detroit Lions. Green Bay is an 11.5-point home chalk on our NFL odds at press time. Let's get fadey.


Under New Management
Or not? The Lions (1-7 SU and ATS) are about as bad as a football team gets, and according to our consensus reports, only 40 percent of bettors are on Detroit, supplying just 12 percent of the action. The average bet size on Green Bay is $179. On the Leos? A paltry $34. Nobody wants any of that real estate.

Except for us here at the home office, and anyone else who's willing to make a contrarian bet when the time is right. This is the time. You've got a double-digit underdog in Detroit – a divisional dog at that. And you've got a Lions team coming off a 45-10 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs (–3 in London), with a bye week in between. Detroit used that time to make wholesale changes to the front office, tossing everything but the kitchen sink and head coach Jim Caldwell. This is where you “buy low” if you're going to buy.


The Three Horsemen
The Packers (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) provide the “sell high” part of the equation. The apocalypse may not have arrived at Lambeau Field, but things haven't been going all that well lately, and it's going to be difficult to get back on track this week with a compromised offensive line. RT Bryan Bulaga (knee), RG T.J. Lang (back) and LG Josh Sitton (back) are three of the 14 players on Green Bay's injury report; Bulaga missed Wednesday's practice, but was back on the field Thursday with Lang and Sitton – although Sitton only put in a little work before bowing out.

This is one of those NFL picks where you just bite the bullet and take the underdog. Of course there's a good chance the Packers come out and destroy the Lions on Sunday, but from a value perspective, the margins are all lined up for Detroit to sneak in there and grab that cheese before the trap is sprung.

NFL Pick: Lions +13 (–125) at 5Dimes

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