NFL Picks: Don't Bet on Chargers' Preseason Success to Continue on Saturday

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, August 28, 2015 1:47 PM UTC

Friday, Aug. 28, 2015 1:47 PM UTC

We're eager to share our NFL Picks ATS as the Seahawks travel to San Diego this weekend. Seattle enters Week 3 at 0-2 SU ATS, San Diego is the opposite at 2-0 SU ATS. 

Seattle Seahawks (-1) at San Diego Chargers 8:00 ET CBS
The Seattle Seahawks travel to San Diego this weekend for an 8:00 ET kick-off on CBS TV.  The Seahawks and the Chargers have faced off each of the last 2 preseasons with Seattle winning 31-10 on this field in 2013 and 41-14 in Seattle last year.  Tonight, Seattle enters Week 3 of NFL-Ex at 0-2 SU ATS, while San Diego is the opposite at 2-0 SU ATS.  If you have read my Week 3 Preseason historical trend article of this week, you know full well why we are backing Seattle and fading San Diego to reverse their results of the first 2 weeks.


Chargers' Preseason Success
No surprise that the Chargers bolted from the August gate at 2-0 SU ATS!  They are 1 of 5 teams from 2014 who had a winning record but did not make the playoffs.  These teams are a combined 8-2 SU ATS through the first 2 games of August.  In Week 1, the Chargers beat a totally disinterested Dallas Cowboys team by a count of 17-7 on this field.  Last week, the Chargers won at San Diego (22-19) as 2 point dog.  This happened despite the fact that they were 1 of only 2 teams, out of 10, who were outrushed by 30+ yards by their opponent, yet still got the victory.  The Chargers have a solid QB rotation with starting QB Rivers, with veteran backup QB Clemens in the wings.  But, it is clear, that as part of Rehearsal Reversal, they are playing the Seattle Seahawks on the wrong week.


Seahawks' 1-1 This Preseason
The Seahawks have had a bad taste in their mouth since blowing last year’s Super Bowl to San Diego on an ill-advised pass play at the goal line.  That has not been erased by either of the games in August.  Opening week, they hosted the Broncos and came away a 22-20 home field loser.  Last week, they traveled to KC, and despite getting the ATS victory for us, fell on the scoreboard 14-13.  It was a consecutive game in which the Seahawks failed to outrush their opponent by 30 or more yards (they were the top rushing team in the NFL last season).  This week, look for the starters to play significant minutes behind QB Wilson, who is ably backed up by QB Jackson, a grizzled veteran with numerous NFL starts under his belt.  Look for the Seahawks to focus on both establishing their ground game and controlling the game with their defense.  It has been the winning formula in their last 2 Super Bowl seasons.  Despite early season losses, Seattle HC Carroll remains 23-14 SU and 25-11 ATS in NFL-Ex play.  This includes 14-1 ATS, if he is facing a foe who won the previous week.  In addition, Game 3 NFL-Ex road teams, when priced as the better team, have a lofty 83% win ratio the last 30+ years. 

Seahawks proved their dominance over the Chargers in August victories the last 2 years.  Now, they will be eager to find a win column the first time in 4 games and the NFL odds currently have them favored to do so.  Expect a concerted effort by HC Carroll to establish the ground game, play staunch defense and take advantage of a San Diego team who may be a bit “fat” following their 2-0 SU ATS start.

NFL PickSeattle Seahawks -2 at Bovada

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