NFL Picks: Don't Bet Against Aaron Rodgers & Take Packers -8 vs. 49ers

Nikki Adams

Friday, October 2, 2015 7:46 PM GMT

The Packers look to extend their winning start to the season with a fourth straight win over the 49ers on the road. Check out our preview and NFL picks for this intriguing NFL Sunday billing.

Green Bay Packers (3-0, 1-0 away)
The Green Bay Packers have been cashing at the NFL betting counter both SU and ATS through three weeks, joining an exclusive club of teams – five in total –that are money in the bank, so to speak. Can they keep the ball rolling for their NFL backers in week 4 by coming through as the considerable road favorites straight up (trading upwards of -350 NFL odds at most sportsbooks, including 5Dimes) and covering the 8-to-9.5-point road chalk (the line varies from sportsbook to sportsbook)?  

While most NFL bettors are confident the Packers are the smart NFL pick to win SU –Vegas Insider records a 75% of the market on this game is coming down the wire towards the Packers – there’s some debate about the NFL betting spread. Do you lay the points with the Packers or take the points with the home underdog 49ers?

Waxing lyrical about Aaron Rodgers and the Packers is unnecessary. Avid NFL bettors are well aware of their value, consistently delivering on the NFL betting floor. Since 2014, they are second best in the NFL with a 16-5-0 SU record (76.2 % winning ratio) and 13-7-1 ATS (65% winning ratio), which includes a 7.9-point margin of victory.

The Packers’ perfect 3-0 SU and ATS start sports a 9.3-point winning margin, which falls just within the considerable chalk currently trading, making it a reasonable bet still to consider for your NFL picks. As the away team, however, the Green Bay Packers aren’t as strong by the stats, boasting a 5-5 SU and ATS mark since 2014, which brings down their winning ratio to 50%.

That said, there’s another side to this coin, the San Francisco side. The Niners are a subpar 9-10 SU and 7-11-1 ATS (38.9% winning ratio) overall since 2014 with a 4.3-point margin of defeat. At home, they are 5-4 SU but an even lower 3-6 ATS (33.3% winning ratio) with a 0.4-point margin of defeat on average.

The Niners did open the season as home underdogs to the Vikings only to come through in a 20-3 win. Ironically, that is the only game since 2014 in which they were installed as the home underdogs, bringing their record in that category to  a perfect 1-0 SU and ATS with a 17-point margin of victory. Surely we can agree there is a huge gap in quality and depth between the Vikings and Packers, meaning this stat is hardly representative or indicative of what the outcome might be on Sunday.

 

San Francisco 49ers (1-2 SU, 1-0 home)
Since their solid 20-3 win over the Vikings, the Niners have regressed behind back-to-back losses to the Steelers and Cardinals. The latter of which was the most gruesome to watch if you’re a Niners fan, laid to waste on the field in Arizona behind a 47-7 decimation by Carson Palmer and Company.

Unfortunately, no book is downplaying that result on the NFL odds board as they send the Niners into their clash with the Packers as the sizeable underdogs. In fact, it’s the first time since 2007 the Niners are such massive underdogs at home. That is telling.

As strange as this move might seem initially the reality is that it’s justifiable. Niners have been spiralling out of control since 2014, a negative trend that can’t be ignored anymore nor explained away by reasonable interpretations. Only delusional Niners’ fans would entertain such notions, surely.

Make no mistake, this isn’t just about the fact that they lost two out of their three games to start the season, but rather the manner in which they did so but tanking spectacularly on the field. The 32.5-point losing margin of the last two weeks takes the Niners into historical trends that no team wants to be a part of willingly. It’s time to panic in San Francisco as the Packers could heap more misery onto the Niners and send them into historical waters no team has ever gone before.

 

NFL Betting Verdict
The way the San Francisco 49ers are playing right now it’s hard to justify any sort of San Francisco-specific NFL pick. Granted taking a large home dog as a rule in NFL betting is a good move for your NFL picks. Some might call it a savvy or sharp move. However, the Niners have done absolutely nothing to warrant such consideration while the Packers are just lighting up the board. Put it this way: Do you really want to bet against the Packers and Aaron Rodgers?  

NFL Picks: Packers -8 (-110) Westgate

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