The NFL odds favor the home Texans at -2.5, with a total of 40.5 points. After Joe Philbin got his first career preseason win both SU and ATS last week, will he follow that up with another one, or will one of the masters of the preseason, Gary Kubiak, take over this game? I know who you should add to your NFL picks.
After blowing the Hall of Fame game to the Cowboys, the Dolphins took out their frustrations on their in-state rivals, the Jaguars in Week 1 of the preseason. The Dolphins’ first-string offense didn’t look great, but their defense was outstanding against the less than par offense of Jacksonville. This week they will have a much tougher test with the Texans, who will likely test every inch of their defense.
The Texans beat up on the Vikings in Week 1, but they really didn’t pull away until late when all the starters were long out of the game. Now coming up against a very good Dolphins team, the Texans will need some more scoring from their first string offense. I expect Matt Schaub to play a majority of the first half in this upcoming game, along with most of the Texan starters.
Under Gary Kubiak, the Texans have been one of the best preseason teams in the league over the last few seasons. Even though it hasn’t translated into any wins in the postseason, they at least have been the best team in Texas over the last few years.
With their Week 1 win, the Texans move to 17-10-2 ATS in the preseason under the coaching of Kubiak. Put that in comparison to Philbin who is now 1-5 ATS as a head coach in the preseason.
Not only is Kubiak a master of the preseason, he does his work early in August, leaving the latter half of the month for player evaluation and position battles. He doesn’t have a whole lot of either to do this offseason, and I think that should help them win in this game. In Weeks 1 and 2, Kubiak and the Texans are now 11-2 SU after their win last week. That is the best of any active coach in the NFL right now when only counting the first two preseason weeks. Compare his first two weeks to his preseason record in Weeks 3 and 4 (6-10 SU) and you get a better picture as to how he might handle this game.
The Sharp Pick
The Dolphins will have a much tougher time scoring on the Texans than they did last week against the Jaguars, and seeing as this is the 3rd preseason game for them, they might chose to play this game, or blow it entirely and wait until next week when they play another Florida team, the Bucs. Either way, they won’t be putting up 27 points again in this game.
With Kubiak’s track record in Weeks 1 and 2 of the preseason, I can’t help but want to lay the points in this game. A few betting odds shops still have the line at -2.5, so grab it with the Texans for your sports picks while you can. I could easily see them winning this game by double figures at home, and I don’t think the Dolphins or Philbin will do too much to try and stop them.
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