NFL Picks: Dolphins vs. Saints in Week 4

Joe Freda

Sunday, September 29, 2013 2:47 PM GMT

Sunday, Sep. 29, 2013 2:47 PM GMT

The New Orleans Saints and Miami Dolphins have both stayed unbeaten, while uniting for a 5-1 spread record in their first three weeks of action. Who's looking to improve that record even further in Week 4?

Monday Night's football betting has the foes clashing in “The Big Easy,” where the Saints have historically outscored visitors by a combined margin of 54-24.

Saints, Brees crush Cards

New Orleans’ latest victory came in Sunday’s 31-7 win over the Arizona Cardinals, cashing as eight-point home ‘chalk.’ Saints quarterback Drew Brees threw for 342 yards and three touchdowns, connecting 29-of-46 passes.

Brees moved the ball for 27 first downs in his side’s 36 minutes of possession, while adding a seven-yard rushing score in the fourth quarter. Saints tight end Jimmy Graham was Brees’ favorite target, catching nine strikes for 134 yards.

New Orleans’ defense held Arizona to 247 total yards, forcing the Cardinals to punt on eight occasions. Saints defensive end Cameron Jordan logged two of his side’s four sacks, while Kenny Vaccaro and Keenan Lewis each grabbed one interception.

Dolphins surge past Falcons

Miami came away with a 27-23 win against the Atlanta Falcons on the same card, coming from behind to collect as a three-point home favorite. The Dolphins erased a late 10-point deficit, with tight end Dion Sims catching his club’s final score with 38 seconds remaining.

Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill hit 24-of-35 attempts, finishing with 236 yards through the air. The Texas native guided his offense for 23 minutes of possession, notching touchdowns in all three of its red zone trips.

Miami’s Dannell Ellerbe logged a team-high nine tackles, with the Dolphins’ defense allowing 377 total yards. Dolphins placekicker Caleb Sturgis moved to a 6-for-6 mark in this season’s field goals, connecting from 46 and 50 yards out.

Back the Dolphins as road dogs


New Orleans opened as a 5.5-point home favorite in the NFL betting odds, while first setting the ‘Total’ at 47. Early wagers on the Saints and ‘Over’ lifted the numbers to 6.5 and 47.5.

I am adding Miami to the week’s sports betting picks, looking for Dolphins to notch another cashed ticket.

The Dolphins have held foes to 15 PPG in their two road contests, including a dome spot in a 24-20 win over the Indianapolis Colts in Week 2. Miami has also brought its share of octane, putting up 249 YPG through the air and 24.7 PPG.

New Orleans has been on its own tear through the season’s start, but comes into this Monday slot overvalued. The Saints went a subpar 2-3 ATS in last season’s first five contests that followed a spot of scoring more than 30 points.

Miami has been underrated at the sports betting shops, cashing with a 12-4 spread record in its last 16 matchups against clubs with winning records. Joe Philbin’s club is 6-2 ATS in its most recent eight contests on turf, while collecting with a 5-1 spread mark in its last six games that came after victories.

Look for the Dolphins to get the money again in this marquee spot, staying within cashing range as their hot season continues.

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NFL Pick: Back the Miami Dolphins on the spread, +6.5 (-110) at William Hill

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