NFL Picks: Dolphins vs. Saints Betting the Spread

Jordan Sharp

Thursday, September 26, 2013 6:25 PM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 26, 2013 6:25 PM UTC

Let’s take a look at some of the key factors leading up to this game, and see who has the best betting value heading into Monday night for our NFL Picks. 

The Dolphins and Saints finalize Week 4 of the NFL season, and the NFL Bettings Odds favor the Saints here at -6 ½, with a total of 48 points. While we are still a few days away, I think there is value at the end of the week. 

Sneaky defense 

Though the numbers don’t quite show it this season, both of these teams have sneaky defensive upsides in this game and this season. New Orleans’ pass rush is pretty good so far this season. They are putting good pressure on quarterbacks, and the numbers are starting to go up. They have eight sacks and four interceptions through three games. While they aren’t flashy numbers, the assumption that the Saints would have another bad year defensively is starting to look untrue. 

For the Dolphins, their defense hasn’t quite taken off yet, but they are still young, and improving with every game. They are third in the league with five interceptions through three games, and while their sack numbers haven’t been where they thought, they are still a very respectable pass rush with nine sacks so far this season.

The problems arise when they try and stop the run. Both of these teams have been giving up yards on the ground so far this season, and it is much more surprising for the Dolphins. If Miami isn’t able to stop the run in this game, Drew Brees and the Saints are going to have more than enough to down the Dolphins for their first loss.

Even though Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas aren’t bruising backs, they can beat teams in other ways, and I think we may see that against Miami on Monday evening. Brees will use play action and hard counts all night to kill the young Dolphins defense. 

Check the Opening Odds for the Game Here~

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The Sharp Pick

The Saints are 15-4 SU in their last 19 home games, and while the Dolphins have already won two games SU and ATS, they are 2-4 ATS in their last six road games. The last time these two teams played each other was in 2009, which ended in a 46-34 game. While I don’t think it will be that high scoring, the total of 48 is pretty close. I could easily see a 30-21 victory by the Saints here, and that’s why I am laying the points.

New Orleans is 19-8 ATS at home since 2010, and with the noise of the Super Dome raining down on young Ryan Tannehill (he has never played in a regular season dome game in his professional career) all game, I see the Saints defense coming through with enough plays to hold down the new and improved Dolphins offense.

However their lack of a run game will lead to some turnovers from the Saints defense, and giving Drew Brees and the Saints’ offense extra drives is never going to win a game on the road. Brees is basically a lock for 300 yards passing and two or three touchdowns, and by the looks of the Dolphins on both sides of the ball, I think they will fall about a touchdown short of winning this game. I’m laying the points with the Saints for my NFL picks in this one.

My Pick: Saints -6 ½ @ at Bet365

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