NFL Picks: Dolphins vs. Jets in Week 13

Doug Upstone

Thursday, November 28, 2013 1:40 PM GMT

There are six teams in the AFC with a 5-6 record and all at least for the moment are vying for the last coveted playoff spot in the conference. These two teams from the AFC East will compete to create separation. The betting odds are tight for this matchup according to sportsbooks, which makes it summons for the football bettor.

Jets Attempting to Avoid Strife While in Playoff Hunt

Flashback to August and it was supposed to be the New York Jets who resembled Houston this season. Yet after nine contests, Gang Green was being lauded for their 5-4 record. While the defeats were often gruesome, the victories were sweet and Rex Ryan was being praised for making chicken salad out of chicken you know what.

Then came the bye week and instead of returning fresh, the Jets have played like that moldy piece of fruit hidden from sight in back corner of the refrigerator. The Flyboys were bludgeoned by Buffalo (37-14) and Baltimore (19-3) and Rex has preached to his team about staying together.

The defense is doing its job, ranked ninth in total defense and first against the run, while the offense has resembled a plea from Alex Rodriguez to fish-out commissioner Bud Selig, it’s going nowhere, averaging 16.9 points a game. Consider what Geno Smith has done recently. The rookie quarterback had back-to-back games with passer ratings below 23. He went four straight games without a touchdown pass and three consecutive games with single-digit completions.

Are the Jets really ready to beat the NFL odds this week?

Time for Miami to Step-up

It has been a rollercoaster season for the Dolphins who after a 3-0 start are 2-6 since and made those making NFL picks jittery as how to look at the Miami.

Miami gave away a golden opportunity in their loss to Carolina, blowing a 16-6 halftime lead. For the season, the Fins are being outscored 127-90 in the final two quarters which has to fall on head coach Joe Philbin for not making proper adjustments or better anticipating what tweaking the opposing team might do and react quickly. Miami ranks last presently among all the 5-6 teams in the AFC with the various tiebreakers.

For the Dolphins, this is as close to must win as possible at this time of the season because this begins a stretch of playing three of four games on the road, with the latter two at Pittsburgh and Buffalo and very challenging home game against New England sandwiched in.

NFL Betting Odds and Matchup Numbers

NFL football handicappers have seen the Jets saunter from -3 to -1.5 because of serious concerns about New York’s offense. For years, Gang Green has held the upper hand on the Dolphins with a 25-12-1 ATS mark, but not many were in December, as the Jets are 15-29 ATS this month playing at home.

The total has also tumbled from 40 to 38.5, but this could be trickier for those making sports picks with the Fins 12-2 UNDER off two or more consecutive Unders and the Jets 6-0 OVER at home after off one or more consecutive Under’s.

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Miami covers and possibly wins by…

Possibly getting a spark from rookie running back Mike Gillislie, who moves into the backup roll with Daniel Thomas out. Miami is 26th rushing the ball and New York is a brick wall stopping the run, but the Dolphins do not appear good enough to win just throwing the ball with Ryan Tannehill.

With Smith’s struggles, the Dolphins 26th rated run defense has to play better to make the rookie quarterback throw the pigskin, something he is lacking confidence in doing. 

The Jets wins and covers by…

Smith relaxing and it might help if New York’s offensive coach’s roll him out to his right and make him just see half the field for shorter quicker throws. This could build Smith confidence and get him to just playing, rather than thinking. The offensive line has a chance to dominate in the run game to make their quarterback’s life simpler.

Realistically, the Jets should be able to have Miami in down and distance disadvantages all day because they can stonewall the run. As long as they can prevent receiver Mike Wallace from making big plays, New York should have a real shot to win.

Final Outcome

Two very skittish teams, but I believe Tannehill will have more of chance to make big plays and the Dolphins win a two-point game.

NFL Pick: Miami +1.5