NFL Picks: With Dolphins Recent Abysmal Record Bet Texans (+4.5)

Ross Benjamin

Tuesday, October 20, 2015 2:14 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2015 2:14 PM UTC

We’re going to take a look at Sunday’s NFL game between the Texans & Dolphins. Which of these teams will be able to earn their first two game win streak of the season? Go inside & find out.

Texans visit South Beach
The Dolphins and Texas will meet on Sunday in a battle of two AFC teams trying to recover from a rough start to 2015. The opening kickoff at Sun Life Stadium in Miami is slated for 1:00 PM ET. Current NFL betting odds at Heritage has Miami as a 4.5 point favorite and the posted total is 43.0. Houston is a perfect 7-0 in their franchise history against Miami with the last of those wins coming in 2012.


Both teams produce needed Wins
Houston is coming off a 31-20 win at Jacksonville, and easily covered as a 3.0 point underdog. The win improved their record to 2-4, and they now find themselves just 1.0 game behind the AFC South leading Indianapolis Colts (3-3). Quarterback Brian Hoyer had a very good game in the win by going 24-of-36 passing for 293 yards and three touchdowns. It marked the first game this season that Houston didn’t commit a turnover. Wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins continues to impress. He had 10 receptions for 148 yards and two touchdowns. Hopkins has accounted for 726 yards receiving in Houston’s first six games. Arian Foster seems to be rounding into form, evidenced by his 112 yards of total offense in just his third start of the season.

Miami responded in a big way to the recent head coaching with a resounding 38-10 road win at Tennessee as a 3.0 point underdog. Running back Lamar Miller led the way with 113 yards rushing and a touchdown. The underachieving Miami defense finally lived up to the hype, sacking Tennessee quarterback Marcus Mariota 6 times, and that included 4 of those coming from star defensive end Cameron Wake. The defense also forced 4 Tennessee turnovers.


Final Analysis
Miami has a terrible recent history as a home favorite, and especially within this point spread parameter. The Dolphins are 10-32 ATS in their last 42 games as a home favorite of 2.0 to 7.0 points, and that includes 6-21 ATS if they’re facing a non-division opponent. This will be just their second game of the season at Sun Life Stadium, and they were hammered by Buffalo 41-14 in their home opener. Despite a stellar effort by their defense at Tennessee, they’re still allowing 379.4 yards per game, and opponents are averaging 5.5 yards per offensive play against them. I’m going to have a very small early lean toward the road underdog for one of my NFL picks.

NFL Pick: Play on the Texans +4.5 (-105) at Heritage

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