Magic Half-Point Gives Dolphins Betting Value Over Jets

Jason Lake

Sunday, November 4, 2018 12:00 PM UTC

Sunday, Nov. 4, 2018 12:00 PM UTC

The New York Jets have had their moments, but after the latest lines moves on the NFL odds board, the Miami Dolphins look like the right pick for Sunday’s matchup.

Jason’s 2018-19 NFL picks record through Week 8: 4-8 ATS, 2-3 Totals

N.Y. Jets vs. MiamiSunday, 1:00 p.m. ET; Miami Gardens (CBS)Free NFL Pick: DolphinsBest Line Offered: Pinnacle

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The New York Jets had to sputter at some point. We had these loveable losers in our late-week NFL picks three times in a row; they covered the first two, but honked their Week 7 game against the Minnesota Vikings, losing 37-17 as 3.5-point home dogs. Then the Jets fell 24-10 to the Chicago Bears (–8.5 at home) last week, leaving them at 3-5 SU and ATS. Sad trombone.

So how about those Miami Dolphins (4-4 SU and ATS)? They beat the Jets SU and ATS in Week 2, and they’ll get another crack at it this Sunday – this time at home. Except it won’t be the injured Ryan Tannehill (shoulder) at quarterback. It’ll be Brock Osweiler. Oh dear. But we’re still going to recommend the Fins as 2.5-point home faves on the NFL odds board. The power of consensus compels us.

Hard Brock Stadium

That’s the expanded consensus reports at SBR, of course. At press time, the Jets are pulling in 56.76 percent of bettors, but 54.73 percent of the money is on Miami, for an average bet size of $73 to New York’s $46. Despite that extra money, the Dolphins have moved down from –3 (–125) at the open. And that’s a big enough move for us to jump on board.

The projections at FiveThirtyEight are with us. They have Miami pegged as a 3.5-point favorite, based on Elo ratings and such. Those ratings will be skewed, since Osweiler has only been on board for the last three starts. But what if we told you that Osweiler has outplayed Tannehill thus far? The DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) numbers at Football Outsiders have Osweiler at No. 16 overall in passing, ahead of Kirk Cousins, Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton – and Tannehill at No. 29.

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Highest rate of off-target throws, 2018 (source: ESPN)
1. Mitchell Trubisky 21.4%
2. Tom Brady 21.3%
3. Sam Darnold 20.8%
4. Josh Rosen 20.1%
5. Josh Allen 19.5%

(Trubisky was 2nd highest in 2017, only trailing Kizer)

— Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar) 31 de outubro de 2018
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Ankle Injuries

That reminds me, we need to check in on our old pal Sam Darnold. Let’s see... oh dear, he’s down to No. 28 this week. Darnold had his worst game of the year thus far against the Vikings, coughing up three interceptions, and he only threw for 153 yards (14-of-29) against the Bears. Maybe he’ll do better this week if injured wideouts Quincy Enunwa and Robby Anderson return from their sprained ankles. They suited up for practice on Friday, but Friday is usually a light day of work, so who knows.

We definitely wouldn’t put more than one betting unit on the Dolphins given the situation, but now that they’re –2.5 instead of –3, we’re willing to throw a few kopecks at them. It’s the most valuable half-point there is, and don’t forget, the Fish were –3 (–125) at the open, so that line move includes an added 15 cents in vigorish. Shop smart, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.

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