NFL Picks for Dolphins-Bills Spread: Bet Favs to Cover Short Line

Steven Suarez

Saturday, September 26, 2015 2:01 PM UTC

Saturday, Sep. 26, 2015 2:01 PM UTC

Both sitting at 1-1 through the first two weeks of the season, the Dolphins will play host to the Bills in a key AFC East battle. Which NFL picks stand out most?

Odds Overview
We should expect nothing short of a bloodbath when division rivals Miami and Buffalo square off in Week 3, and online sportsbooks are thinking the same.

At time of writing, the Dolphins were favored by 2.5 points at most of the top sportsbooks, though some sites had the spread at an even three points. We'll continue to monitor the NFL odds throughout the week to see if anything changes so that we can get the best possible number we can before kickoff. You should too.

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Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins suffered a letdown in Week 2, losing on the road to Jacksonville. In the 23-20 defeat, Miami was poor defensively throughout the entire first half before settling in, but by then it was too late. The Dolphins were unable to fight their way back and now find themselves at 1-1 for the season.

In the loss, Ryan Tannehill still managed fine individual numbers, completing 30-of-44 passes for 359 yards and two touchdowns, which made up for a horribly inefficient running attack that could only muster 42 total yards on 16 carries. Rishard Matthews and Jarvis Landry totaled 14 catches for 225 yards between them, but it still wasn't enough.

Now Miami returns to South Beach for its first home game of the young season, hoping to bounce back with a win. Tannehill will face a tougher test this time around against a formidable Buffalo defense, but Tom Brady and the Patriots showed in Week 2 that there are weaknesses to exploit. 

Buffalo Bills
They may have shown some grit in clawing their way back, but the Bills still have to be disappointed with their 40-32 home loss to New England in Week 2. For a team that was supposed to have one of the most dominant defenses in the NFL, it sure didn't look that way versus the defending Super Bowl champs.

There were some encouraging signs for Buffalo despite the loss, as Tyrod Taylor and the Bills outscored New England 19-3 in the fourth quarter to make things interesting in the closing stages. Taylor ended up with 242 passing yards, three touchdown passes, three interceptions, 43 rushing yards and a running score in the wild game. LeSean McCoy had 15 carries for 89 yards (with backup Karlos Williams poaching a short score), while Robert Woods and Sammy Watkins both had touchdowns too.

Coach Rex Ryan will be hoping for a better balance here in Week 3; the defense stepped up during opening week against the Colts before faltering last week, while the offense did the opposite. We'll soon find out if Buffalo will be up for the challenge this Sunday.

Free NFL Pick on Doplhins vs. BIlls Total

NFL Pick
This is going to be a highly competitive game, and one that's likely to be decided in the closing minutes.

That being said, we believe Miami will be able to do just enough to get the win, and we'll jump on the lines as they are before a potential move to a key number of three.

The Dolphins own one of the few defenses that can stack up to what Buffalo (especially that front seven) brings to the table, and at this point in the season we trust their offense a little more too. Tannehill is the more experienced quarterback and should feel more comfortable at home, and he's got plenty of weapons surrounding him too. We expect the Dolphins to employ a similar strategy as the Patriots did last week and attack through the air, and we believe they'll have success in doing so.

So, with our Week 3 NFL picks, we'll be recommending you side with Miami at home.

Free NFL Pick: Miami Dolphins -2.5 at Bet365

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