NFL Picks: Do We Agree With the Current Super Bowl Futures Odds?

Kevin Stott

Saturday, August 1, 2015 12:40 AM GMT

Saturday, Aug. 1, 2015 12:40 AM GMT

Let’s look at the updated highest Futures odds for NFL teams here before August rolls in and see if the numbers jive with my perception of what a fair price would be.

Often, an individual’s perception about an NFL team’s chances to win the Super Bowl are a little different than the actual NFL odds the oddsmakers have hanging on the betting board for the league’s 32 teams with some fans and bettors having trouble separating their emotions and own personal bias for their favorite teams(s).

But then again, there is nothing wrong in the recreational context of Sports Betting for the fan and/or bettor making a Futures Book bet on the Chicago Bears or the Cleveland Browns if they are fans of that team and just want to “believe.” But for the serious bettor, reality and value matter.  

 

Introduction
There will probably be no time better than Now to make those last Futures Book bets in NFL betting markets as once August begins and football is actually being played, it’s like some magical Quickening Switch is flipped and all football fans go from neutral to third and then into fourth gear very quickly with NFL Preseason games and the College Football season kicking off. Here, we are going to compare the highest Super Bowl 50 Futures Book odds for all 32 NFL teams (from select sportsbooks) with my own perception of what a fair market value would be. How did I come up with the numbers? I pretended I was sportsbook director and that I wanted to provide a fair number for the customer without creating a potential big liability on the other end. As this mythical Sportsbook Director—of which I was relieved of my duties on Day Two by The Man for demanding the waitresses go topless with little football-shaped pasties covering their nipples—I must admit the bias I had which others really in the position may actually have to deal with: Thinking that there are probably really only 4 teams (Seahawks, Packers, Patriots, Colts) that can win the Super Bowl this season. All in all, the numbers were fairly close up top and at the bottom, with some slight differences in the mid-levels teams. Here are the highest odds I could find to win Super Bowl 50 in February from the Oddschecker screen and 5Dimes followed by what I made as perceived “fair” prices before looking up all these fresh numbers from European, Offshore and Online operators.

 

Highest Select Super Bowl Futures Odds (July 31, 2015)
Seattle Seahawks +465 (5Dimes)

Green Bay Packers +700 (Coral)

Indianapolis Colts +1000 (Sky Bet, William Hill)

New England Patriots +1080 (Matchbook; +1000, 5Dimes)

Denver Broncos +1500 (5Dimes)

Dallas Cowboys +1850 (5Dimes)

Baltimore Ravens +2500 (Sky Bet, Ladbrokes, Coral William Hill)

Philadelphia Eagles +2500 (PaddyPower, Stan James Totesport, Betway)

Pittsburgh Steelers +2800 (Sky Bet, Stan James, 888sport, William Hill, Unibet, betway)

Arizona Cardinals +3300 (Sky Bet, 888sport, Coral, Unibet, 32Red)

Miami Dolphins +3300 (Boylesports, BetVictor, Coral, 888sport, William Hill, betway, 32Red)

Cincinnati Bengals +4000 (BetVictor, William Hill)

Detroit Lions +4000 (William Hill)

Kansas City Chiefs +4000 (Skybet, Totesport, Betfred, Ladbrokes, William Hill)

Carolina Panthers +4300 (5Dimes)

New Orleans Saints +4300 (bet365, Sportingbet, William Hill, Stan James, 5Dimes)

Atlanta Falcons +4500 (5Dimes)

San Diego Chargers +5000 (5Dimes)

Buffalo Bills +5500 (5Dimes)

Houston Texans +5500 (5Dimes)

New York Giants +5500 (5Dimes)

San Francisco 49ers +6000 (5Dimes)

Minnesota Vikings +6600 (betway; +6000, 5Dimes)

St. Louis Rams +7000 (5Dimes)

New York Jets +8000 (BetVictor, 888sport, Coral, William Hill)

Chicago Bears +13,500 (5Dimes)

Washington Redskins +23,500 (5Dimes)

Cleveland Browns +24,000 (5Dimes)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +30,000 (5Dimes)

Oakland Raiders +40,000 (5Dimes)

Jacksonville Jaguars +40,000 (5Dimes)

Tennessee Titans +40,000 (5Dimes)

 

My Mid-Summer Perceived Fair Super Bowl 50 Futures Book Odds
Seattle Seahawks +400

Green Bay Packers +500

New England Patriots +550

Indianapolis Colts +900

Denver Broncos +1500

Dallas Cowboys +1900

Pittsburgh Steelers +2100

Baltimore Ravens +2200

Philadelphia Eagles +2350

Carolina Panthers +2400

Buffalo Bills +2700

Houston Texans +2900

Arizona Cardinals +3000

Cincinnati Bengals +3200

Detroit Lions +3300

Minnesota Vikings +3300

Kansas City Chiefs +3300

Miami Dolphins +3400

New Orleans Saints +3600

San Diego Chargers +3600

Atlanta Falcons +4000

New York Jets +5000

New York Giants +5000

San Francisco 49ers +7000

St. Louis Rams +7000

Chicago Bears +7000

Cleveland Browns +10,000

Oakland Raiders +15,000

Washington Redskins +50,000

Jacksonville Jaguars +50,000

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +50,000

Tennessee Titans +100,000

 

Conclusions
All in all with a couple of exceptions, the odds everywhere are fairly close to what I came up with, except I seem to have put a little more faith in Minnesota Vikings, Kansas City Chiefs, Houston Texans, Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills and the Carolina Panthers, but the discrepancy between my numbers and the current maximum odds is well understood. Only one of these 32 teams is going to win its backers this bet after all, so bad odds or bad reads on teams like the St. Louis Rams, Houston Texans and Arizona Cardinals don’t really matter because realistically, those teams aren’t getting to Santa Clara this season. The oddsmakers have possibly given less credence to Carolina (43/1, 5Dimes) having a good season because of that one, oddball game on the Panthers schedule at Seattle. AFC South-mates the Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers don’t have to worry about Richard Sherman knocking their teeth loose, so why do the Panthers? Apparently a fruit basket was never sent from Charlotte? At least we all can’t blame former FIFA President Sepp Blatter for all of this. Maybe. And if Carolina somehow upsets the Seahawks in Seattle in Week 6 (Seahawks 4-1 ATS L5 vs Panthers), and they can despite the Trends and expectations, then those odds will change quicker than the Chicago weather. As you can see, oddsmakers (and bettors) have punished the New England Patriots for their part in the Deflategate situation at the 2015 AFC Championship Game, making the defending Super Bowl champions as high as 10/1 in some places based on perceptions of what will happen with the 4-game suspension to Patriots QB Tom Brady. And my perceived fair-price odds on the Bills (27/1) are way lower than the 55/1 you can find at 5Dimes, and as written about here, the Bills could shock the world if they can get some decent QB play and upset the Patriots. So there’s nothing wrong with a little $20 bet on Buffalo which could return over $1,000. And it could be a fun ride.

The highest odds around right now for the Tennessee Titans are 400/1 (5Dimes), yet realistically, this team has maybe a 400-to-1 chance of finishing .500, so my odds of 1000/1 may seem way off compared to the highest sportsbook, but this millennium, they are trying to limit their liability and not have any gaudy numbers—thus the reason you will usually find better Futures Book odds online and offshore, because those operators are usually solely into Sports Betting and don’t have to answer to anyone really while sportsbooks here in Las Vegas are a very small (2-5% generally ) part of the whole casino pie and directors of sportsbooks in Sin City have to answer to casino executives. Limited exposure in the Futures Book markets is what sportsbooks want here as they can often get an imbalance that may actually affect the way the sportsbook makes future point spreads or odds for those teams involved. In short, it’s hard to explain to the Suits and Ties why the Minnesota Twins were fairly priced as 500/1 longshots to win the 1991 World Series and why there’s now a line of MLB bettors 77-deep at the betting window trying to collect the hundreds of thousands of dollars they just won from your casino because “everyone” knew the Twins had absolutely no shot to make the playoffs, let alone win the World Series. Liability in the Futures Book can be a scary thing at times for Directors, more so probably here in Las Vegas where a really big upset can have an affect on the book’s yearly bottom line. There are often some scares and it doesn’t happen very often anymore with most Futures Book odds tighter than a frog’s ass, but when it does, it can be catastrophic, although you won’t hear the gamblers crying.

Maximum Value Low-Level (Bet Amounts) Super Bowl 50 Futures Book Picks: Baltimore Ravens 25/1 (Sky Bet), Philadelphia Eagles 25/1 (PaddyPower), Carolina Panthers 43/1 (5Dimes), Buffalo Bills 55/1 (5Dimes), Minnesota Vikings 60/1 (5Dimes)

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