NFL Picks: Divisional Round Prop Betting

Jordan Sharp

Friday, January 11, 2013 1:53 PM GMT

Friday, Jan. 11, 2013 1:53 PM GMT

We have only eight teams left in the NFL playoffs, which means our prop betting options are going to start getting smaller by the week.


NFL Divisional round prop betting options

Only four games line the schedule this weekend, and with only four games, the actual betting lines lessen in value because the books don’t have a lot of games to worry about. So, let’s take a look at some prop NFL Odds, because we need to find areas of other values.

Player props

Starting out our proposition free picks with the quarterbacks, and there is a cluster of them with very similar odds on who will pass for the most yards. Four of the eight quarterbacks are within +175 of one another. Tom Brady has the best odds at +300, while the biggest long shot is rookie Russell Wilson at +950. I’m thinking Joe Flacco at +700 is solid value, considering everyone and their mother thinks the Bronco will be playing with the lead during their game. Flacco could be a likely candidate, and will be my small underdog play of this prop. I think you have to like Tom Brady as well among the elite QBs, but the best value looks like it might be Matt Ryan at +475. Ryan and the Falcons have zero running game, and the Seahawks don’t give up much on the ground anyway. If you have to narrow it down to two, I’d go Ryan and Brady.

In the running back department, Marshawn Lynch is the favorite at +175, followed closely by Arian Foster at +225. The only reason Foster isn’t the favorite is because like in Flacco’s world, everyone thinks the Texans will be playing from behind. Frank Gore, Knowshon Moreno, Ray Rice and Steven Ridley are all at +550, and if you like any of those four, I think it has to be either Moreno or Gore. I don’t trust Ridley, and Rice has to face a tough Bronco run defense. I would go with two picks again in this to give us the best value, by taking Gore at +550, and Foster at +225. 

Finally, in the receiving yards department, there are eleven guys on BetOnline with odds, some as low as +300, and others as high as +950. There are three of those eleven names that stick out to me. First is the favorite Andre Johnson at +300. Johnson is his team’s only real deep threat, as their second best receiving option is a tight end. Another favorite is Julio Jones at +550. He and Roddy White have the same odds, and it is a coin flip every week on which one will get the yards. Finally, the biggest long shot is Golden Tate at +950, and he is actually appealing. The Falcons’ secondary is beatable, and he is Russell Wilson’s best deep ball threat on play action. Personally, I like Jones, but the favorite of Johnson is a nice pick as well.

Team props

Team props are pretty hard to predict, but there are a few that have a little appeal. The total for interceptions for 49ers quarterbacks in their game against the Packers is only .5 and I’m thinking the over at -130 is a nice pick. Colin Kaepernick will likely commit an error on a throw, and remember that Charles Woodson is back for the Packers. I like the over at -130.

Finally, at +115 the Over in the amount of field goals made in the Denver and Baltimore game is at 3 ½. In the altitude of Denver, field goals get a bit more length, and both Matt Prater and Justin Tucker both have solid legs. The defense of both these teams will show up in this game I think, leaving me to believe that each team will have at least two field goals.

Ok folks, hit 'em with those props and good luck with the rest of your sports picks!

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