NFL Picks: Detroit Lions vs. Seattle Seahawks has all the Makings of a MNF Blowout

Kevin Stott

Thursday, October 1, 2015 3:54 PM GMT

The Seahawks got their first win in Week 3, blanking the Chicago Bears in Seattle, and now it’s the winless Detroit Lions and an injured Matt Stafford come to the Emerald City Monday night in Week 4.

Odds Overview Detroit Lions vs. Seattle Seahawks
This Monday Night Football date from CenturyLink Field in Seattle between the host and defending NFC champions Seattle Seahawks (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) and QB Russell Wilson (23-9-2 ATS at Home) and the visiting Detroit Lions (0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS) looked a lot better on the schedule preseason, and is a massive game for the winless Lions who can probably start thinking about next season (already) if they lose and fall to 0-4. Right now (Tuesday morning), the Seahawks are still 9-point favorites in at least one sportsbook (MGM Mirage) but at 9½ and 10 for the most part now here in Las Vegas and Offshore, so if you like the Seahawks, best bet them now. The Total here is pretty much 43 everywhere although SIA is posting a 42 while in the the Money Line, favorite Seattle is priced at -444 with Detroit at +380 on the takeback (Pinnacle). The Seattle Seahawks Team Total for this game is 26 (Ladbrokes) while the Detroit Lions Team Total has been set at 16½ (Ladbrokes). First Half Total markets as well as other Props bets for this game will be released later in the week.

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Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions (56 PF-83 PA) pretty much saw their season come to an early end after a 24-12 loss to Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos at Ford Field in Detroit on Sunday Night Football. And with a game here in Seattle against the angry Seahawks, this is a bad spot on the schedule for Detroit. And having three of their first 4 games on the Road against fierce opponents (Chargers, Vikings, Seahawks) was like instant doom from Señor Schedule-maker. Losing DL Ndamukong Suh (Dolphins) and Nick Fairley (Rams) to Free Agency is one thing, but having to start the season off with this schedule—which included those aforementioned Denver Broncos and Peyton Manning in the Home Opener—is a reason why sophisticated sports gamblers look at and are aware of each team’s Regular Season schedule, its order and the numerous possibilities involved, before the season starts. It is an Art, but like anything else in Life, takes Time to get good at. There are no Brain Steroids for Wisdom, brother. Snap out of it. Besides this brutal Scheduling reality, the whole Lions (11-6 SU, 8-9 ATS in 2014) season is also teetering with the condition of the bruised Ribs of starting QB Matthew Stafford (14-26-1 ATS on Road). Listed as Questionable (Monday) for Head Coach Jim Caldwell (8-12 ATS) and the Lions (150/1 to win Super Bowl, William Hill) were talented OLB DeAndre Levy (Hip), TE Brandon Pettigrew (Hamstring), G Larry Warford (Ankle) and DE Ezekiel Ansah (Groin). In Week 1, the Lions blew a 21-3 lead in San Diego and ended up losing to the Chargers, 33-28, while in Week 2, Detroit lost 26-16 at Minneapolis to the Vikings in their first NFC North clash of the season. In their last game in Week 3, as mentioned, Detroit fell in their Home opener to the Broncos at Ford Field as a collective murmur could be heard from the crowd throughout the 4th Quarter with many fans now wondering what to do with the remaining tickets on their season package. All teams think the Regular Season is going to be good until the Regular Season starts and you’re sitting on an 0-3 record and playing the Seahawks in noisy Seattle with a QB who experiences Pain in his Ribs when he throws the football. You do the math.

 

Seattle Seahawks
The Seattle Seahawks (74 PF-61 PA) found their form on Sunday, shutting out the Chicago Bears at CenturyLink Field in Seattle in their Home opener to get their first win as SS Kam Chancellor returned from his Holdout to the Legion Of Boom. Seattle RB Marshawn Lynch did hurt his Hamstring in the win over the Bears and he did have an MRI performed on Monday, but it‘s a minor thing and he should be alright and starting here in primetime against Detroit. The Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in the L5 meetings at Home and with versatile QB Russell Wilson (24-9-2 ATS at Home) new TE Jimmy Graham, WRs Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse and RBs Lynch (280 rushes, 1,306 yards, 13 TDs in 2014) and Thomas Rawls (16 rushes, 104 yards), the Seahawks and Head Coach Pete Carroll (55-32-2 ATS) have a better Offense and better skill players now than most imagine. Seattle (7/1 to win Super Bowl, bet365) opened up with two Road games, and Losses (Rams, Packers), and will be a team to watch from this point forward as we all know how good this team is when having to string together wins. Seattle’s goal here will be to simply get to 2-2 and expect them to do so fairly easily if the Defense can hold Lions WRs Calvin Johnson (20 receptions, TD) and Golden Tate (15 receptions, 161 yards) in check. On the Injury front for Seattle, Demarcus Dobbs (Shoulder) is listed as Probable, RB Lynch (Hamstring), CB Tharold Simon (Toe), S Steven Terrell (Hip), TE Luke Willson (Back) and DT Brandon Mebane (Groin) are all listed as Questionable. Expect most here, including Lynch to be ready to play on Monday night.

 

Series Numbers, Recent Relevant Trends and Game Expectations
Detroit comes into this game winless, with a gimpy QB in Stafford, against a team known and nicknamed for its hard hitting and far, far away from home so this is just a bad spot for the Lions. They need the win, and we can deem it a “must-win,” but it’s hard to see Detroit finding a way to win here unless they get some wonderful combination of Turnovers, good Field Position, breaks (officiating) and stellar play from an injured Stafford and WRs Johnson and Tate to get to that end. The Seahawks registered a shutout against Chicago and will definitely shoot for one here vs. Detroit—Lions Team Total Points Under?—and are a much better team with Chancellor back who is worth much more by his sheer presence than the nfl odds can account for. Players play better when playing with players they’ve played before with and having the best players on the gridiron is always the best thing for any team at any level. The Lions will be traveling 2,350 miles, playing in a Time Zone three hours ahead (EDT to PDT) and will have Fear in their hearts and little confidence overall. A bad 1st Quarter or a worsening of the injury to the Lions QB Stafford means backup QB Dan Orlovsky could quickly be thrown to the hungry Seattle wolves—and we all saw how that worked out for Bears backup Jimmy Clausen last week...with the same number of points scored as my Mailman, Cliff. Zero is good in some things like maybe the number of calories in a Tic Tac, but not as your final tally of points in a 60-minute professional football game.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Seahawks -9 (-115) at Bookmaker