NFL Picks: Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears

David Lawrence

Wednesday, November 6, 2013 9:25 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2013 9:25 PM UTC

The Chicago Bears have had an odd few weeks. They lost their starting quarterback, Jay Cutler, but saw backup Josh McCown step in and play admirably. What should we do for our NFL picks here?

On top of that, they caught a break when Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers was injured on Monday Night Football. Not only have they gone from looking like the odd team out in the race for the NFC North title, they are now back in the thick of things as the Packers will be without Rodgers for nearly a month.

On top of that, the Bears can reinforce their run for the playoffs by beating the other North contender: the Detroit Lions. They visit Soldier Field this weekend in a matchup that could very well decide the postseason fates of both teams. 

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears

Odds: Lions -1.5

The Detroit Lions can win because…

The Bears defense is pitiful. Sure, head coach Marc Trestman has managed to spark the team’s offense but it’s pretty clear that Lovie Smith had a significant impact on the defense. The Bears have allowed at least 21 points every week and the 28.3 points per game they’ve allowed is the fourth-worst average in the NFL. When you take a look at Detroit’s season so far, you start to realize that when their offense is working, they are winning games. In simple math terms, they average 32.6 points per game in their wins and 18.0 points per game in their losses. Given what Chicago gives up, the signs point to a Lions win

The other main difference in this game is that the Bears are banged up. Sure, everyone knows about Cutler but Lance Briggs is out and the team is very thin at defensive tackle. That should allow the Lions to run the ball, keep the Bears off-balance and put some points on the board.

The Chicago Bears can win because…

The Lions are not a good road team. Those who make their NFL picks might want a reminder: remember Week 2 in Arizona (25-21 loss)? Week 5 in Green Bay (22-9 loss)? Even their wins in Washington and Cleveland were hard-fought, scrappy wins. They haven’t looked impressive on the road. More importantly, they haven’t even been that impressive at home. Entering the bye week, the Lions had lost at home to the Cincinnati Bengals and then needed a miracle to beat the Dallas Cowboys. Something isn’t quite right with this Detroit team and a road trip to Soldier Field is likely to expose their woes even more.

The Bears offense has (surprisingly) not missed a beat with McCown under center. So far, he has a quarterback rating of 100.2 with three touchdowns and no interceptions. He’ll have the Bears moving on offense, which is reason enough alone to take them as a home dog on the NFL odds.

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Outlook & NFL Football Betting Prediction:

There are rumors that Cutler might play this week but that may not have as big of an impact as you might think. McCown has filled in just fine. The problem for the Bears is that they can’t stop anyone. They gave up 45 to Washington, 21 to the New York Giants, 26 to New Orleans and 40 to Detroit in their first meeting. They’ve suffered more injuries since and are quite shorthanded.

Still, going on the road is always an adventure for Detroit but look for them to be very focused after their bye week. Take them with your sports picks this week as they are the healthier, stronger and fresher team right now.

NFL Picks: Lions -1.5 at William Hill

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