LVH Sportsbook in Las Vegas has the Lions at 7.5 wins this season, with the ‘Over’ and ‘Under’ priced the same at -110. With eight games against teams who had double digit wins a season ago, are the Lions over or undervalued in the offseason NFL odds?
Looking for more NFC North team season wins info? Read our division breakdown!
The Lions might once again be the tale of two halves this season, which would be déjà vu from their 2012 campaign. Last season the Lions started the season 4-4 SU, but then lost their last eight games of the season to finish 4-12 SU. This season, either the league has a since of humor when it comes to the Lions collapsing in the second half, or Detroit continues to get crappy scheduling luck.
The first half of Detroit’s schedule is not that rough. They play most of the winning teams from a year ago at home, and their road games are almost all going to be close with the exception of the Green Bay game. However the last half of their schedule might bring back bad memories from a season ago.
During the second half of the season, the Lions go on the road to play the Bears, Steelers, Eagles and Vikings, while they have home games against the Bucs, Packers, Giants and Ravens. The Lions might be favored in one or two of those last eight games, and that does not sit well for a team trying to bounce back from a four win season. From my eyes, it looks as if the Lions might even be worse than 4-12 SU. They have the 2nd worst strength of schedule of any team in the NFL this season, just behind the Panthers.
How do the Lions rank against the rest of the NFC North this season?
The Lions are a -3 favorite in the Week 1 NFL odds against the Vikings, with a total of 47 points. Despite the fact that the Lions added Reggie Bush and some other depth on offense, they haven’t gotten that much better this season, especially on defense. Last season Adrian Peterson ran for a combined 272 yards and a touchdown against the Lions in two games, and I don’t see any reason he won’t do it again this season.
Minnesota cashed in both games against the Lions in 2012, and the Vikings are 3-0-1 ATS against the Lions in the last two seasons. Even though the Lions are at home, they were 2-6 ATS in Detroit a season ago.
The Sharp Pick
The Lions are one of my better NFL picks in the season win future odds, and the ‘Under’ is the way to go. Even if the Lions go 4-4 SU in their first eight games again, I sincerely doubt they finish the season at .500. Their defense is not that great outside of their pass rush, and without a steady second option on offense, Calvin Johnson will still be doubled every snap of the season. I see no more than five wins for the Lions this season.
My Pick: ‘Under’ 7 ½ -110 at BET 365
Week 1 Lean: Vikings +3