NFL Picks: Detroit Lions NFL Futures Betting

Jordan Sharp

Friday, May 10, 2013 4:21 PM UTC

Friday, May. 10, 2013 4:21 PM UTC

I find it hard to believe that the Lions (4-12 SU, 6-10 ATS in 2012) are 40/1 to win the Super Bowl. Their final standings in defensive stats are very misleading as well.

Detroit Lions future odds update

Can a team that is almost always overvalued by bettors have any sort of value in the upcoming season? The Lions were an awful 6-10 ATS last season, and got nowhere close to their goals or projections. With the exception of a possible Calvin Johnson prop bet, is there any value with the Lions as it stands no or when the season comes around?

Super Bowl (+4000)

Just take a look at how they finished up 2012. They lost every game on the second half of their schedule, while giving up and average of over 30 points per game. During that stretch they also gave up two 100-yard rushers and five different guys who had over 100 yards receiving in a game against them in those final eight regular season games. Sure they have been signing guys left and right, but not in the area that they need.

NFC (+2500)

This price seems a bit more reasonable for where I think the Lions will end up this season. The signing of Reggie Bush is big for this club. If you’re just looking at their regular season stats from last season, the one big glare on their season is that they couldn’t run the ball at all by the end of the season. As much as I like Mikel Leshoure, he needed a change of pace back. But the NFL Odds are still overvaluing the Lions for one very specific reason, and it is not their obviously talented offense.

My Take

If you can’t play defense in the NFC North, you’re not getting very far in the division, as shown by last season. The Lions’ defense was pretty good the first half of the season, but then went south as I noted above. What Lions’ defense will show up this season, the first half’s or the second half’s?

The Lions lost Cliff Avril and his 9.5 sacks to the Seahawks and that is a big blow to their defensive line. They also lost Justin Durant who was 2nd on the team in tackles. They also lost some depth out of their secondary in Jacob Lacey. Although they drafted well in trying to find replacements, I don’t think any of those guys are going to have an immediate factor on this team winning and/or covering.

For me, the Lions are almost as good of a fade as they were last season for my sports picks. They lost enough on defense to where teams are going to come from behind a lot on this team, making them covering anything a bad bet. I think we have to sell on the Lions. They are coming into the season with an eight game losing streak and have to face a new and very much improved Minnesota team in Week 1. I can already say that the Lions are -3 favorites and I am fading them.

Check out my recent article covering the Dallas Cowboys Future Betting!


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