NFL Picks: Denver Broncos Win Totals & Game-by-Game Predictions

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, May 26, 2015 7:38 PM GMT

Can the Denver Broncos crush the projected 10 Season Win Total currently trading across sports betting platforms? Join us for this game-by-game analysis as we serve up our NFL picks.

Setting The AFC West Standard
The Denver Broncos are going for a fifth straight AFC West title, fourth straight with Peyton Manning calling the shots. Since the 2011 season when Tim Tebow led the Broncos to an 8-8 division-title winning season, the Broncos have consistently delivered double-digit accounts, largely down to their future Hall of Fame quarterback Peyton Manning. The Broncos have gone 13, 13 and 12 in the last three seasons, booking their place in the postseason no lower than the second seed in the AFC. 

Yet, NFL odds makers went to press with a 10.5 projected season win total mark earlier this year. That has rather interestingly drifted lower since going to press. Down to 10 wins now across various sports betting platforms such as Bovada, the Denver Broncos are trading on the cusp of a double-digit season – albeit the OVER is slightly favored at -125 while the UNDER is matched on -105 NFL odds. To add insult to injury, the Broncos are also the third favorites in AFC futures betting markets at +550, behind the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts.

Falling behind the Patriots is understandable given the fact they are the defending champions. Falling behind the Colts? Not so much. Consider Andrew Luck has yet to win anything of note in the NFL playoffs. Not that he won't one day, but until he makes the move from pretender to contender (as Tony Romo did last season), lauding the Colts seems a touch overzealous, don't you think.

To be fair, the Colts have a favorable schedule (the second weakest in the field), but that isn't enough to explain such a dramatic twist in NFL betting markets. After all, the NFL schedule covers the regular season only. The postseason is a different ball game altogether. The Colts' win over the Broncos in the NFL playoffs, great as it was – go on call it a signature win, even – isn't enough either. Let's face it, we all know what happened next: they succumbed to the deflating (no pun intended) 45-7 defeat to the Patriots.

In any event, this articles isn't meant to be a dissertation on Luck and the Colts. So let's get back to the task at hand: Denver Broncos and the 10 win total projected for the 2015 season across sports betting markets. It might interest NFL bettors to know that Manning is a WHOPPING 11-1 against his Las Vegas season win totals over the last 12 years as a starting quarterback.

So we put it to you: is there any reason the Broncos can't go OVER 10 wins? Go on, think about it. We're waiting with bated breath. Just don't go all ageist on us and pull the "he's 39 years of age" card. Because that's just too simple of an answer, if not sooo cliché.

For our money, we're going with the OVER 10 wins at -125 for our NFL picks. Last season, odds makers were trading the Broncos as high as 11.5 wins on the season all while boasting the second toughest schedule in the NFL. True to form, Manning came through with a 12-4 season to crack Las Vegas Win Totals for the eleventh time in his career, as recommended on our NFL picks as well

This season, the Broncos have  the tenth toughest schedule of the entire league, boasting a 0.541 winning percentage that is considerably lower than last year's 0.570 winning percentage. On the whole, it's a winnable schedule by their lofty standards. So long  as they can weather a challenging early portion that features  four out of six games on the road, they should be in good stead down the stretch after a week 7 bye, which features six of their last ten games at home.

Here's how we see it going down for the Broncos:

 

Week 1: vs. Baltimore (home), Sunday, Sept 13 at 4:25 PM
The Denver Broncos open their season at home against the Baltimore Ravens, a side that is notorious for being dangerous floaters on the road  – albeit more so in the offseason. Broncos finished the season 8-0 SU at home, extending their home form to 22-2 SU at home since Manning took over as the starting quarterback. In 2013, they opened the season at home against the Ravens. Manning threw 7 TD passes en route to a 49-27 victory. Perhaps another seven TD account isn't on the cards, but NFL bettors have to fancy the Broncos to win this season opener on their NFL picks. The game will also feature a happy reunion of sorts for Gary Kubiak, former offensive coordinator with the Ravens that takes over the reins in Denver following John Fox's departure. Kubiak is replaced by the Bears' former head coach Marc Trestman. Should be an interesting matchup on the sidelines as well.

NFL Picks: Win
Record: 1-0

 

Week 2: vs. Kansas City (road), Thursday, Sept  17 at 8:25 PM
Last season, the Denver Broncos faced off against the Chiefs at home in week 2 NFL betting. The result: a 24-17 win that saw the Broncos improve to a 2-0 SU start on the season. This year, they face the Chiefs again in week 2, but on the road and on Thursday Primetime TV. The short turnaround between week 1's date with the Ravens and week 2's date with the Chiefs is going to be tough, but it'll be a game the Broncos will feel is a must-win towards divisional supremacy. Last year, the Broncos swept the series with Kansas to improve to 6-0 SU against their divisional rivals. Until proven otherwise, the Broncos have to be the smart NFL pick again.

NFL Picks: Win
Record: 2-0

 

Week 3: vs. Detroit (road), Sunday, Sept 27 at 8:30 PM
A second straight road trip in as many weeks is eased somewhat by the extra few days between Thursday and the following Sunday. That should help Peyton Manning and the Broncos to recover from a packed start to the season with two solid opponents and prepare for a third straight stiff challenge in the Lions. If Matthew Stafford lights up, he can give the Broncos defense a run for their money. Where the Broncos might have the edge is against the slightly weakened Lions defense, now without Ndamukong Suh. This is going to be a close one on the NFL betting floor, but Manning edges this one out over the Lions to lift the Broncos to a 3-0 start on the season.

NFL Picks: Win
Record: 3-0

 

Week 4: vs. Minnesota (home), Sunday, Oct 4 at 4:25 PM
A trip back to Mile High in week 4 NFL betting has the Vikings coming to town. This game hangs in the balance of Adrian Peterson and his still questionable status with the team. The running back can make a huge difference on the field for the Vikings along with the promising talent of Teddy Bridgewater. Still, Peyton Manning doesn't often lose to young, rising stars in the game. It's one the Broncos should win, no matter what challenge (and you can bet there will be one) the Vikings bring.

NFL Picks: Win
Record: 4-0

 

Week 5: vs. Oakland (road), Sunday, Oct 11 at 4:25 PM
Can you find any reason to back the Raiders on your NFL picks here? Go on, have a think. We can wait....

As far as divisional rivalries go, this one is the Broncos should have in the bag. Last year, they swept the series with a 47-14 win at Mile High and a 41-17 win on the road. They are 6-0 SU against the Raiders over the last three seasons. Need one say more?

NFL Picks: Win
Record: 5-0

 

Week 6: vs. Cleveland (road), Sunday, Oct 18 at 1 PM
The Broncos will be looking to go into a week 7 bye on a positive note; a date with Johnny 'Football' Manziel and the Browns could be just the perfect sort of game to go into the break with a huge win. On both sides of the ball, the Broncos are deeper and better. They should rout the Browns on the road, you'd think.

NFL Picks: Win
Record: 6-0

 

Week 7: Bye

 

Week 8: vs. Green Bay (home), Sunday, Nov 1 at 8:30 PM
This is going to be one of the biggest games of the season for the Denver Broncos, a visit from Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers on Sunday Primetime TV. It's the must-see game of the season in many respects; some NFL bettors might look at it as a preview of a potential Super Bowl 50 matchup. If the Broncos are at full strength they are tough to beat at home as evinced by their 8-0 SU record at Mile High last year. NFL upset mongers, though, will like Rodgers' chances to mastermind the upset on the road. If there were a team that could beat the Broncos, it's the Packers, surely. This game could go down to the wire; in other words it's a tossup. We'll go with the Broncos on our NFL picks because it's a home game and the Packers are mere mortals on the road, but we wouldn't be shocked if the Packers did pull off the upset.

NFL Picks: Win
Record: 7-0

 

Week 9: vs. Indianapolis (road), Sunday, Nov 8 at 4:25 PM
One word: Payback. The Broncos will be out for blood in this game after the Colts dumped them from the NFL playoffs. Doing it on the road isn't going to be easy and the Colts will have a slightly different look to them after picking up Frank Gore, Andre Johnson and Trent Cole, amongst others. Still, we're feeling optimistic about the Broncos this season and feel they can edge this one out for our NFL picks.

NFL Picks: Win
Record: 8-0

 

Week 10: vs. Kansas City (home), Sunday, Nov 15 at 4:25 PM
Although the Denver Broncos have swept the series with the Chiefs over the last three seasons, this year they might not be able to do so with the Chiefs bolstered up in key positions. Obviously, predicting the Chiefs to beat the Broncos at Arrowhead makes more sense than suggesting it will happen at Mile High. However, the Chiefs collide with the Broncos at home in week 2, when they still might not have all the pieces working well together. By week 10 NLF betting, though, with playoff implications to consider, the Chiefs might be in a better position to pull off the road upset. It's a long shot NFL pick, but we think a Chiefs win over the Broncos is long overdue in the AFC West. It very well could happen this season.

NFL Picks: Loss
Record: 8-1

 

Week 11: vs. Chicago (road), Sunday, Nov 22 at 1 PM 
Peyton Manning and John Fox reunite on opposite sides in Chicago. It should be a bittersweet reunion for the pair. In any event, in terms of NFL betting one has to fancy Peyton Manning over Fox. Brilliant though the coach is and he'll know how to get at Peyton, one still has to like the Broncos overall to get by the Bears. They are the better team with the better quarterback. Would you trust Jay Cutler to beat a future Hall of Famer on your NFL picks?

NFL Picks: Win
Record: 9-1

 

Week 12: vs. New England (home), Sunday, Nov 29 at 8:30 PM
Last year, the Broncos collided with the Patriots at Gillette Stadium in week 9 NFL betting, only to be routed 43-21. By virtue of the loss, they fell to second seed in the AFC despite a finishing the regular season with identical 12-4 records. This matchup almost always seems to have an impact on the AFC playoff picture. Win it and top seed in the AFC is an almost give... well, almost but not a certainty. It helps to have it in the win column.

So both sides will be looking to take this one on the NFL betting floor. The way Tom Brady and the Patriots dismantled Manning and the Broncos last season leads one to believe they could do so again here. The Broncos have lost back-to-back regular season games to the Patriots (34-31 in OT in 2013), but both were at Gillette Stadium. They did beat them in the AFC Championship game 26-16 at Mile High in 2013 though.

Clearly, there is value on both sides of the coin in this game. Broncos should win at home, but the Patriots could upset them too. In the name of symmetry, we have the Broncos winning this in the Patriots' game-by-game preview. So we'll go with that NFL pick here again.

NFL Picks: Win
Record: 10-1

 

Week 13: vs. San Diego (road), Sunday, Dec 6 at 4:05 PM
Is Philip Rivers going to be in San Diego this season? That's the overwhelming question that hangs in the balance of this game on week 13's NFL betting card. Last year, the Broncos swept the series with the Chargers winning 35-21 at Mile High and then taking the 22-10 win. The year prior, however, they split the series 1-1 with each side winning on the road. The Broncos, however, got their payback in the playoffs beating the Chargers at Mile High en route to the Super Bowl. Chargers figure to be the Broncos' biggest threat this season, but that will change dramatically if they don't have Philip Rivers on their roster.

NFL Picks: Win
Record: 11-1

 

Week 14: vs. Oakland (home), Sunday, Dec 13 at 4:05 PM
The Broncos look to improve to 8-0 at the expense of the Oakland Raiders in week 14 NFL betting. Something that they should be able to do without too much fuss. They've not faced much opposition from the Raiders in the three seasons Manning has been calling the shots. The team hasn't improved nearly enough to appear to be a legitimate contender in AFC West futures betting. Broncos should take the easy win.

NFL Picks: Win
Record: 12-1

 

Week 15: vs. Pittsburgh (road), Sunday, Dec 20 at 4:25 PM
Taking on the Pittsburgh Steelers on the road in the middle of December is going to be a tall order for the mighty Broncos. Big Ben can be lethal when he's in the mood to be and Le'Veon Bell can wreck havoc on the Broncos. This is one where we fancy going against the Broncos on our NFL picks.

NFL Picks: Loss
Record: 12-2

 

Week 16: vs. Cincinnati (home), Monday, Dec 28 at 8:30 PM
Last year, Andy Dalton and the Bengals stunned the Broncos on a rainy day in Cincinnati. Ironically, the defeat came in week 16 NFL betting and sent seismic shockwaves through NFL betting circles. Most worrisome, Manning looked out of sorts then and he simply ran out of ideas as the Bengals ripped them apart on the field. Manning will look to atone for that account with home advantage in this game. That's going to be the difference maker. Bengals are mere mortals on the road and as good as they are somehow we just don't see a win in Mile High.

NFL Picks: Win
Record: 13-2

 

Week 17: vs. San Diego (home), Sunday, Jan 3 at 4:25 PM
Closing out the season against the San Diego Chargers at Mile High could go down several ways. If Rivers isn't playing, a Broncos win has to be as sure as the sun is to rise the next morning. However, if he is, then, this game could have playoff implications for both sides. As such, one has to assume both will be looking to win it and finish the season on a positive note. Still, in a matchup between Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers, the former is always the better option on our NFL picks. Besides, as we've alluded to the many question marks that surround the Chargers, it would be a irresponsible to advance the Chargers on our NFL picks at this point in time.

NFL Picks: Win
Record: 14-2

 

NFL Betting Verdict
As you can see, by our overzealous predictions we've got the Broncos headed towards a 14-2 SU season at the very best. That said, a 12-4 to 13-3 SU is probably a more realistic mark to settle on, which could happen if a couple of the games that we referred to as "tossups" go against our above stated NFL picks.

In any event, this is all but speculative. A lot is yet to be decided in training camps, preseason games and trades and much more. Nevertheless, the 10 win total set for Broncos appears to be too low in our opinion. And with Manning coming up 11-1 against his Vegas Season Totals over the last 12 years as a starter we're comfortable advancing the Broncos on the OVER 10 on our NFL picks at -125.