NFL Picks: Denver Broncos Team Profile 2015

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, August 6, 2015 7:26 PM GMT

Each day until the start of the 2015 NFL season, LT Profits will provide a team profile that can be referred to when making NFL picks. Today they look at the Denver Broncos.

 


The 2015 NFL commences Thursday night, September 10th, but before we get there, we will be here presenting daily team profiles well in advance of opening weekend in an attempt to assist you with your NFL picks. Today we are profiling the Denver Broncos, who finished 12-4 in 2014 and in first place in the AFC West before getting upset by the Indianapolis Colts in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs.

To begin, here is a summary of the Denver betting statistics over the past five seasons. Note that all of these statistics are for regular season games only.

 

Denver Broncos Betting Stats, 2010 through 2014

   Home  Away  Overall
ATS Overall  18-19-3    22-18     40-37-3  
ATS Favorite  15-13-2  13-9  28-22-2
ATS Underdog  3-6-1  9-9  12-15-1
Avg. Margin  +7.3  +0.6   +4.0
Over – Under  28-11-1  22-18   50-29-1
Avg. Total Score    52.9  50.2  51.6

 

What really stands out about the Broncos over the last five years is their amazing success with the ‘over’, as it stands at 63.3 percent overall including a remarkable 71.8 percent at home! It is a bit surprising that Denver has a losing ATS record at home of 18-19-3, although it becomes more understandable when you consider the Broncos are usually overvalued there. However the Broncos are 59.1 percent ATS as road favorites, bucking the trend of most teams.
Key Trend: The ‘over’ is 16-5, 76.2 percent in Denver games following an ATS loss.

Next we look at the Broncos’ statistical summary for the 2014 season.

 

2014 Denver Broncos Team Statistics (Per Game)

   Offense    Off. Rank   Defense    Def. Rank 
Points  29.1  4th  22.2  17th
Rushing  110.2  15th  80.9  2nd
Yds. Per Rush    4.0  20th  3.6  4th
Passing  285.9  4th  227.8  12th
Yds Per Pass  7.4  5th  5.7  1st
Total Yards  396.1  5th  308.6  3rd
Yds. Per Play  6.0  7th  4.9  2nd

 

The Broncos are obviously known for offense, especially their passing game, but Denver was much more balanced last year as the running game took off once C.J. Anderson took over as the starting running back and the defense was one of the best in the NFL. Unfortunately, Peyton Manning basically hid the fact that he tore his right quadriceps in Week 15 vs. the San Diego Chargers and his ineffectiveness led to the upset loss to the Colts in the playoffs.

And now we take a peek at various Denver Future Odds for this 2015 season from several sportsbooks. You can view these and other future and prop odds on the Sportsbook Review Futures and Prop Bets Directory.

 

2015 Denver Broncos NFL Futures

   5 Dimes  Bookmaker    Bovada  Heritage
Super Bowl Odds    +1500  +1338  +1200  +1400
AFC Conf. Odds  +520  +575  +500  +500
AFC West Odds  -170  -160  -200  -195
Win Total  10½ un-140    10 ov-140  10 ov-130    10½ un-140  

 

The Broncos are odds-on favorites to repeat as AFC West Champions, but it is interesting that after going 12-4 last season, sportsbooks are expecting “only” 10 wins this year as the places that are offering win totals of 10½ are juicing the ‘under’ rather heavily. Denver is the third choice to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl behind New England and Indianapolis.

 

Denver Broncos Key Additions
The Broncos added tight end Owen Daniels and guard Shelley Smith to the offense, but unfortunately both are downgrades from what Denver had at those positions last season. The defense added linebacker Reggie Walker and safety Darian Stewart, both of whom could start immediately but both of whom are also probably more suited for backup duty.

Denver Broncos Key Losses
The Broncos lost quite a bit on both sides of the ball and they may not have adequately replaced any of the losses. They include the departures of tight ends Julius Thomas and Jacob Tamme, guard Orlando Franklin, nose tackle Terrance Knighton and safety Rahim Moore.