The Denver Broncos are one of the biggest Super Bowl favorites of the entire NFL, and their season wins future odds courtesy of LVH Sportsbook in Las Vegas reflect that. The Broncos come in priced at 11.5 wins this offseason, with the over at +110, and the under at -130.
If being one of the best teams in the NFL isn't enough, the Denver Broncos have the easiest strength of schedule, based on their opponents’ 2012 winning percentage. With the exception of a few tough games at the beginning of the season, and a few late-season road trips, the Denver Broncos have a great chance of reaching the Super Bowl. They of course open the season against Baltimore at home, and then they follow that up with a Week 2 road trip to New York to play the Giants. After that, their schedule seems minor league. After improving a lot over the offseason, and after a year of seasoning with Peyton Manning as their quarterback, the Denver Broncos could be in line for one of the best records in the entire NFL this season.
The NFL season begins on Thursday night September 5, when the Denver Broncos host the Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens. I'll leave out the fact that it's somewhat odd that the Super Bowl champions have to open up the season on the road, but either way the Broncos come in as huge favorites, much like they were in the playoffs last year (and we all know how that turned out). Denver is anywhere from -7.5 to -9.5 favorites against the Ravens coming into Mile High and -much like last year’s playoffs- the public is taking points with the Ravens at nearly 2/1.
NFL odds for the Week 1 matchup total are set just under 50 points at 49.5, and I think that we need to be looking at the game total. The Ravens did not lose anything on offense this offseason and the Broncos have just added to theirs. On the other side of the ball, the Broncos defense is okay but has not gotten much better than it was last year; the Ravens’ defense however, has gotten a lot worse on paper. All signs seem to point to a higher-scoring game to open up the season, much like the Packers and the Saints did a couple of seasons ago.
How does Denver measure up against the rest of the AFC West?
The Sharp Pick
If any team is going undefeated this season, I would put my money on the Broncos. Although I sincerely doubt they will, a 13-3 SU season could be in the mix, which would make the over have some nice value for your NFL picks. I think they will probably lose their road matchup against the Patriots, along with one or two more, but the Broncos will likely be favorites in 14 of their 16 games this season, so we must be careful not to overvalue them. With that being said, I think they will surely go above 11.5 wins SU, making this +110 bet a good value.
My Pick: ‘Over’ 11.5 +110
Week 1 Lean: OVER 49.5 at William Hill