The Broncos edged out the Chiefs once again this past week, this time on the road in Kansas City. This win has firmly supplanted the Broncos as the favorites to win the Super Bowl, and subsequently, their conference and division. Denver’s NFL odds to win all of these things has lost value with every passing week, and at this point, I’m not sure if there is any value left. However, let’s take an update look at some of their future odds prices from Bet365.
Super Bowl (+275)
I just helped you all cash a prop bet of +225 this past weekend, so +275 for a future odds bet seems like way too much risk for what you’re betting. Peyton Manning’s old body still has to get through three or four more regular season games (depending on their record and first overall seed potential) and then the playoffs. That means the Broncos would have to at least win three of their next four games, as well as three in a row in the playoffs. While it can easily be done, there is too much risk. One player going down could royally screw this bet, and I am more inclined to bet some +200 or higher props every week to have much more value and much less risk. There are other teams with much higher value to win the Super Bowl, namely the Patriots at +650, or the Saints at +750.
The Broncos are the only team laying money in the conference future odds, and once again, the value is simply not there. To win the conference, they would likely have to go through either the Bengals or maybe even the Chiefs in the divisional rounds, and then a showdown with Tom Brady and the Patriots looks imminent in the AFC Championship game. Either way, the value is not there to take that kind of a risk. If they were above even money, somewhere around +110 or higher, then I would think about it, but -120 is barely enough value for a prop bet or even a spread, let alone a future odds bet. Crazier things have happened. Remember what happened when Brady and the Pats had a regular season like Manning and the Broncos are having. The 2007 Patriots didn’t win the Super Bowl, and the 2013 Patriots have already beaten the 2013 Broncos once.
After their win over the Chiefs in Week 13, the Broncos have basically wrapped up their division. Mathematically they can still lose obviously, because in the standings the Chiefs are only a game back. However the Broncos won both games against Kansas City, and their final four games are against teams with a combined record of 16-32 through Week 13. The Chiefs on the other hand have to play three of their last four games on the road, as well as a home game against the likely playoff-bound Colts. Although crazier things have happened, I sincerely doubt the Broncos lose hold of this division.