NFL Picks: Denver Broncos 2015-16 Season Win Totals & Super Bowl 50 Futures Odds In-Depth Analysis

Nikki Adams

Sunday, May 10, 2015 6:19 PM GMT

Projected season win totals for the Denver Broncos are in full swing. Find out how high expectations are and where the Denver Broncos stack up in NFL betting futures. 

Denver Broncos Down To Fifth Overall Faves
With a disappointing 2014-2015 postseason highlighted by an untimely exit at the hands of Andrew Luck and the Colts and a 39-year-old Peyton Manning leading the Denver Broncos, it's not surprising that they've come down in NFL betting markets from season's past. They are still amongst the top five contenders (Table 1) and that's something to hang one's hat on.

The Denver Broncos were runners up to Seattle Seahawks two years ago after suffering one of the worst defeats in Super Bowl betting. Last year, they were unceremoniously dumped by Manning's heir apparent in Indianapolis. There's a lot of speculation about Peyton Manning's fitness and ability to compete at a high level for the duration of the regular season and well into the postseason. For now, the bookies aren't writing off the 39-year-old, sure-fire Hall of Famer.

 

Table 1: Super Bowl 50 Odds To Win Outright
(Odds Courtesy of Bet365

Seattle Seahawks +450
Green Bay Packers +650
New England Patriots +800
Indianapolis Colts +1000
Denver Broncos +1200
Dallas Cowboys +1800
Philadelphia Eagles +1800
Baltimore Ravens +2200
Pittsburgh Steelers +2500
Kansas City Chiefs +2800
Arizona Cardinals +2800
Miami Dolphins +2800
Cincinnati Bengals +3000
New York Giants +3000
San Diego Chargers +3300
Detroit Lions +3300
Carolina Panthers +3300
Buffalo Bills +3300
New Orleans Saints +4000
St. Louis Rams +4000
San Francisco 49ers  +4000
Atlanta Falcons +4000
Minnesota Vikings +4000
Chicago Bears +4000
Houston Texans +5000
New York Jets +6600
Cleveland Browns +8000
Washington Redskins +15000
Tennessee Titans +15000
Oakland Raiders +17500
Jacksonville Jaguars +17500

 

2014-2015 In Review
The Denver Broncos finished the regular season with a convincing 12-4-0 SU record and narrowly missed clinching the AFC top seed after losing to the Patriots at Gillette Stadium. At home, the Broncos were up to their lofty standards with a perfect 8-0 SU record. On the road they did meet with some adversity and finished with a modest 4-4 SU record. Importantly, they went 6-0 SU in their division and 10-2 in the AFC Conference.

Given their overall account on the season as well as their Conference and AFC West Division accounts, it comes as no surprise that they are the clear-cut (or one of) favourites in various NFL betting futures. They are the third overall favourites in the AFC Conference at +550 NFL Odds and the obvious top favourites in the AFC West at -200 NFL odds (Table 2).

 

American Football Conference Division Odds: 

NFL Conference Division Odds: AFC East

New England Patriots Off the Board
Miami Dolphins Off the Board
Buffalo Bills Off the Board
New York Jets Off the Board

 

NFL Conference Division Odds: AFC North

Baltimore Orioles +163
Cincinnati Bengals +240
Pittsburgh Steelers +200
Cleveland Browns +900

 

NFL Conference Division Odds: AFC South

Indianapolis Colts -350
Houston Texans +350
Tennessee Titans +1400
Jacksonville Jaguars +2200

 

NFL Conference Division Odds: AFC West

Denver Broncos -200
Kansas City Chiefs +425
San Diego Chargers +350
Oakland Raiders +3000

 

Denver Broncos Projected Season Win Totals
Odds makers chalk the line at 10 wins this season, which is a full win and a half less than their projected season total of 11.5 for last season. A line the Broncos covered with their 12-4-0 SU record, mind. It's worth noting, we had the Broncos on our NFL picks going Over 11.5 at -110 and it was a winning recommendation

It's quite likely that the lowered expectations have everything to do with the question marks that hang over Peyton Manning at 39 years of age. In any event, the Broncos are still expected to leave the rest of the AFC West division in their wake; that is, if the projected season win totals currently trading across sports betting platforms were any indication (Table 3).
 

 

American Football Conference Projected Season Win Totals
(Odds Courtesy of WestGate LV Sportsbook)

AFC East Odds: Projected Season Win Totals 

New England Patriots 10.5
Miami Dolphins 9
Buffalo Bills 8.5
New York Jets 7

 

AFC North Odds: Projected Season Win Totals 

Baltimore Ravens 9
Cincinnati Bengals 8.5
Pittsburgh Steelers 8.5
Cleveland Browns 6.5

 

AFC South Odds: Projected Season Win Totals 

Indianapolis Colts 10.5
Houston Texans 8.5
Tennessee Titans 5.5
Jacksonville Jaguars 5.5

 

AFC West Odds: Projected Season Win Totals

Denver Broncos 10
Kansas City Chiefs 8.5
San Diego Chargers 8
Oakland Raiders 5.5

 

As it stands, the Broncos have the AFC West Futures Odds market cornered on -200 NFL odds and on a 10 season win total mark. Kansas City Chiefs and San Diego Chargers have proven to be worthy opponents in the last couple of seasons, but they've not been able to crack the division since Peyton Manning's arrival and that counts.

Of course, it's way too early to be say that the Broncos are guaranteed to match their season win totals of the past few years since the Peyton Manning Era got off the ground. By that same token, there's no reason to suggest they won't other than plain old fashioned ageism (Table 4). 

 

AFC Season Win-Loss-Tie Record Last 5 Years

AFC EAST

2014-15 2013-14 2012-13 2011-12 2011-12

AVERAGE WIN TOTALS

 

Patriots 12-4-0 12-4-0 12-4-0 13-3-0 14-2-0 12.6
Dolphins 8-8-0 8-8-0 7-9-0 6-10-0 7-9-0 7.2
Bills 9-7-0 6-10-0 6-10-0 6-10-0 4-12-0 6.2
Jets 4-12-0 8-8-0 6-10-0 8-8-0 11-5-0 7.4

AFC NORTH

 

           
Ravens 10-6-0 8-8-0 10-6-0 12-4-0 12-4-0 10.4
Bengals 10-5-1 11-5-0 10-6-0 9-7-0 4-12-0 8.8
Steelers 11-5-0 8-8-0 8-8-0 12-4-0 12-4-0 10.2
Browns 7-9-0 4-12-0 5-11-0 4-12-0 5-11-0 5

AFC SOUTH

 

           
Colts 11-5-0 11-5-0 11-5-0 2-14-0 10-6-0 9
Texans 9-7-0 2-14-0 12-4-0 10-6-0 6-10-0 7.8
Titans 2-14-0 7-9-0 6-10-0 9-7-0 6-10-0 6
Jaguars 3-13-0 4-12-0 2-14-0 5-11-0 8-8-0 4.4

AFC WEST

 

           
Broncos 12-4-0 13-3-0 13-3-0 8-8-0 4-12-0 10
Chiefs 9-7-0 11-5-0 2-14-0 7-9-0 10-6-0 7.8
Chargers 9-7-0 9-7-0 7-9-0 8-8-0 9-7-0 8.4
Raiders 3-13-0 4-12-0 4-12-0 8-8-0 8-8-0 5.4

 

NFL Betting Verdict:
Since Peyton Manning's arrival at Mile High, the Broncos have been nigh unbeatable at home and in the division as well. At home, they are 22-2-0 SU in the last three years and in their division they are 17-1 SU in the AFC West.

Their season win total average over the last five years improved to 10 entirely because of Peyton's ability to carry the team to double-digit season totals three years running. If we whittle it down to just the Peyton Era, their seasonal average is 12.67 wins. That's comparable to the New England Patriots' season win total average of 12.6 over the last five years.

Based on recent stats, the projected 10 wins on the season does seem a tad low for the Broncos, prompting us to consider the Over for our  NFL picks again in early NFL betting markets. The 2015-2016 NFL schedulers aren't giving the Broncos any favours by handing them the tenth toughest schedule (based on last season's winning percentage of their opponents). Then again, it could have been worse. If the Broncos can continue their dominance in the AFC West, they technically only need to win 50% of their remaining ten games to push the projected total of 10 games. Surely, the Broncos are  still good for more than five wins in their remaining ten games outside of the AFC West division?