LVH Sportsbook in Las Vegas has the 'Boys priced in at +135 for the ‘Over’ in this bet, and -155 on their NFL odds board for the ‘Under.’ After several straight disappointing seasons for the Cowboys, will they once again be overvalued in the future and season odds, or are they ready to finally take control of this division, which will be weaker than it was a season ago?
Read our division breakdown for more information on NFL Season Win Totals!
The Cowboys don’t have it that bad this season based on their strength of schedule. The Boys rank 25th in the NFL this season in that department, but like most teams in this division, I think the SOS is a bit misleading. Of course this division will be a tough road to travel to get to the playoffs, and on top of that, the NFC East plays the NFC North this season. Sure they also play the AFC West too, which is the only reason their strength of schedule is not much tougher.
Dallas got pretty lucky in the first part of their season, as most of their games against 2012 playoff teams in the first half are at home. They of course open against the Giants at home, although they weren’t a playoff team, and they play Denver, Minnesota and Washington at home in the first half.
After their Week 11 bye, things get a bit tougher. They play at New York, at Chicago, at home against Green Bay and Washington on the road in four of their last six games. The Cowboys could go 9-7 SU this season, but they are going to have to win some games that they are not supposed to. Knowing this is the Cowboys we are talking about, it doesn’t put too much reassurance on me knowing that they are going to have to upset one or two teams in order to have a good season.
How do the Cowboys rank against the rest of the NFC East this season?
After the season opener between the Ravens and Broncos, the Giants and Cowboys get our next national TV game, this time on Sunday night. The Cowboys are -3 favorites here at home, a spot they were 1-6 ATS last season as home favorites. The Giants on the other hand were 2-1-1 ATS as road underdogs a season ago, and if you read about what I said about the Giants, you know I am probably going with the road underdog in this one.
Dallas is always wildly overvalued at home. They were 1-7 ATS overall at home in 2012, and in the last three seasons, the Cowboys are 6-13 ATS when playing at home and 4-17 ATS as home favorites in the last three years. Honestly I wouldn’t be opposed to anyone locking in this bet now. I think the Giants are going to be a solid team this season, and once they get their offensive house in order this offseason, they might come in and blast the Cowboys in Week 1.
The Sharp Pick
There are several things we could do for our NFL picks the 8 ½ wins the Cowboys are lined out for this season, but like last season, I don’t see the Cowboys getting to 9 wins this season. However that does not mean I am a fan of the under. At -155, all the value has been taken out of the Cowboys and this bet, and there is no reason to risk a wager at -155 in a future odds setting. The Boys might end up at 8-8 again this season, but I am not taking the risk, because they could also be a solid team.
My Pick: No Play
Week 1 Lean: Giants +3 at Bet 365