NFL Picks - Cowboys Will Still Want To Beat Rival Eagles

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles game

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, December 28, 2016 4:44 PM GMT

Despite all of this talk about resting offensive skill position players and Tony Romo potentially getting some downs against the Eagles, the Cowboys still have their pride and won’t want anything to stop the momentum.

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles

With the #1 seed in the NFC sewn up and nothing to play for in week 17, the Dallas Cowboys (13-2 SU, 10-5 ATS, 408 PS-279 PA) head to Lincoln Financial Field (Desso Grassmaster) in Philadelphia (Partly Cloudy, 49°F) Sunday afternoon to face the Philadelphia Eagles (6-9 SU, 7-8 ATS, 340 PS-318 PA) in an NFC East matchup.

Offshore sportsbooks have seen the Eagles settle in as 4-point favorites almost everywhere now (Tuesday night) with the total from 43½ to 44 and the money line with Philadelphia -200 and Dallas +170. In the NFL Week 17 Advanced Line, the Eagles opened as 1-point favorite while in its 2016 NFL Games of the Year, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook Book had the game at Pick ‘em.

 

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys got their first ATS cover in 5 tries on Monday night, caging the Lions in Arlington, 42-21 as Dallas saw former Missouri High School Track star Ezekiel Elliott rush for 80 yards and 2 TDs as Dak Prescott (152.7 Passer Rating) and the Cowboys offense played a very efficient 60 minutes.

Dallas is 4-0 ATS L4 vs. teams with losing record, 8-1 ATS L9 after ATS win, 19-7 ATS L26 grass and 9-3 ATS L12 following SU win. The Cowboys are 1-6 ATS L7 Sunday following MNF game and 1-4 both L5 overall and vs. NFC. The Under is 13-3 L16 Dallas road games, 9-2 L11 grass and 5-1 L6 in January while the Over is 9-4 L13 Cowboys games vs. NFC East.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles played well in week 16, beating the Giants in Philadelphia on TNF, 24-19 but this is a meaningless game at the end of a frustrating season for Carson Wentz, Darren Sproles, and the Eagles with a point spread here pointing toward an ambivalent Cowboys team which theoretically won’t care about winning or risking injuries to key players as well as prioritizing giving some a rest. With Home-field advantage secured, America’s team v2.0 will get a week rest anyway. So handicapping Philadelphia’s ability to outscore a number in which oddsmakers have them nearly a solid FG chalk against a question mark becomes the quandry.

One thing’s for sure: Dallas’s defense (18.6 ppg, #4 NFL) ain’t chopped liver brother and if the Eagles offense didn’t have the ageless Sproles, they’d be in a world of hurt, relying on Rookie Wentz, Ryan Mathews, Jordan Matthews, Nelson Agholor and Zach Ertz. Philadelphia is 5-2 ATS L7 at home, 9-90-1 ATS L30 after allowing 350+ total yards previous game, 1-4 ATS L5 vs. NFC East and 2-6 ATS L8 January.

The Over is 8-0 L8 Eagles vs. NFC East, 4-0 L4 overall and 13-4 L17 vs. NFC while the Under is 10-4 L14 Philadelphia games after SU Win and 5-2 L7 Home.

 

Series Trends And Betting Approach

The Cowboys are 5-2 ATS the L7 meetings, 4-0 ATS the L4 in Philadelphia, the Road team is 8-2 ATS L10 meetings and the Underdog is 6-2 ATS L8 meetings so all the Series Trends point toward Dallas and RB Ezekiel Elliott (1,631 yards) who sits just 178 yards away from Eric Dickerson’s NFL Rookie Rushing Record. But don’t Elliott—who rested much of the 2H Monday—to get the chance or the carries in this spot and his highest single-week mark was 159 (TB) and it looks he has the NFL Rushing title locked down.

The Under is 5-2 the L7 meetings in Philadelphia with the Eagles (5-2 SU Home) winning and covering last year’s meeting in the City of Brotherly Love, 33-27 in a game which went over by 16 points (PHIL -3, 44).

The big questions here: Is Dallas and Head Coach Jason Garrett really willing to play Dak Prescott 60 minutes? The Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports Cowboys owner Jerry Jones doesn’t want Romo to play unless Mississippi State product Prescott gets hurt. So we’ll see and this might not be the best game on which to make a major bet. But if compelled, taking the much more Dallas and the 4 points seems like the best route. The Cowboys won’t practice or play to lose a game at end of this magical Regular Season.

 

Predicted Final Score: Cowboys 24 Eagles 23Free NFL Pick: Cowboys +4Best Line Offered: at Sports Interaction

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