NFL Picks Cowboys vs. Redskins to go Over

Steven Suarez

Wednesday, December 18, 2013 6:23 PM GMT

Fresh off an excruciating loss last weekend, how will Tony Romo and the Cowboys respond? Are they worth taking with our NFL picks? Let's take a look at the NFL odds and see where we can find some value.

Odds Overview

Right now the NFL odds are favoring Dallas by a field goal on the road over their division rivals. The Cowboys are now 7-7 SU and 8-6 ATS on the year, while the Redskins are 3-11 SU and 4-10 ATS.

Most sportsbooks are offering a total of 53.5, but 54 can also be found if you think there's value on the UNDER. In the past 10 head-to-head meetings between these teams, the UNDER has gone 7-3, while Washington has covered the spread in six of the past seven matchups.

Dallas Cowboys

Wow. That's all we have to say. What an unimaginable collapse from the Cowboys against a Packers team missing its best player in Aaron Rodgers.

Dallas was up 26-3 at halftime and looked like they were going to cruise to a win. However, Green Bay wouldn't give up and out-scored the Cowboys 34-10 in the second half to win by a point.

Tony Romo started off on fire but made critical mistakes down the stretch which ultimately cost his team in a major way. Overall he was 29-of-48 for 358 yards with two touchdown passes and two interceptions. Dez Bryant had a game-high 153 yards and a nice touchdown grab, while Jason Witten (71 yards) also found the endzone.

The running game was clicking for the Cowboys too, as DeMarco Murray ran 18 times for 134 yards and a touchdown. However, Dallas abandoned the ground attack in the closing minutes and it certainly cost them.

The Cowboys' defense continued to underwhelm, something we've gotten used to seeing week in and week out. This is a team that's ranked dead last in team defense, allowing a total of 427.3 yards per game heading into Week 16.

NFL Picks: Week 16 Betting Odds Report

Washington Redskins

The Redskins also lost by a point (in Atlanta) last weekend, but at least they put up a good fight in Kirk Cousins' first start of the season.

Cousins made a lot of big plays in the loss and ended up with 381 passing yards and three touchdown passes. He did throw two picks to go with a lost fumble, so it wasn't all good, but Washington did seem to rally behind the presence of a new starting quarterback.

A number of different receivers got involved in Week 15. Pierre Garcon had seven catches for 129 yards and a touchdown and eight other Redskins had at least one catch in the loss. Alfred Morris logged 98 rushing yards.

The Redskins have now lost six straight games, while only covering the spread in one of those defeats.

When it comes to performing ATS at home, Washington hasn't been doing it. They're just 2-5 up against the number at FedEx Field this season.

NFL Picks: NFC Future Betting Odds

NFL Pick

At first we liked the Cowboys on the spread, as they've already beaten Washington (31-16) with ease this season and will want to redeem themselves after that shocking loss in Week 15.

However, it's a little tough to have confidence in Dallas after that kind of collapse. Who knows what kind of frame of mind they'll be in.

So, we're taking the OVER. Cousins led the offense admirably in his season debut and should have another good game against the Cowboys' horrific defense. At the same time, Dallas is likely to have success offensively versus a Washington team that's allowing a league-worst 31.0 points per game.

We like the chances of a shootout in this NFC East battle, so we'll go ahead and recommend our NFL pick on the OVER.

Pick: OVER 53.5

[gameodds]16/227094/?r3=43-19-349/dec&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]