With the three Thursday games, the sportsbooks get a bonanza with NFL odds releases on Thanksgiving. Plus, we return to having a full slate of games with bye weeks completed.
After two record-breaking weeks, the sportbooks just had a winning week. They suffered losses with Atlanta, Dallas and Seattle in particular, but picked up other winners on Houston, Carolina and Detroit.
It turns out the swing games were on public teams Denver and Green Bay. Most books were heavy on Chicago and Minnesota. While the Broncos officially closed at -2.5 to fail to cover, that only changed in the last 90 minutes before kickoff, thus a loser for many making NFL picks. Green Bay's 30-13 win as Pick or +1 was a real boost for books, particularly on teasers, where the Vikings were +5 or +6.
On the topic of teasers, football handicappers like myself use teasers more frequently to be right side of key numbers to build an edge. While I present a four-team teaser weekly, break these out into two or three-team teasers, which increases your chances of winning, as I have actually been correct overall on 31 of 43 choices. (One Push)
Carolina +6 Teaser Odds
For the life of me, this feel like stealing every week backing Carolina either against the spread or in six-point teasers for sports picks. All this talk of Arizona having better analytics and would be favored on a neutral field is maybe fun to talk about, but the Cardinals have two losses as favorites. Plus, now that Tony Romo is back, Dallas is going to run the table in the regular season and be a threat to beat anyone in the playoffs for those drinking beverages out of Cowboys mugs. Here is my question, who would you rather gave for quarterback right now, Cam Newton or Tony Romo?
Here is hoping more Dallas money comes in so we can take the Carolina Panthers up to +7 on teasers, knowing this teaser system. Play On teams committing 1.25 or fewer turnovers a game, versus a team forcing 1.25 or fewer turnovers a contest, eight or more games into the season, after three straight contests having committed one or less turnovers.(51-3 L33Y)
Minnesota +8 Teaser Odds
Minnesota looked bad in drubbing by Green Bay, but do not expect that to continue. The Minnesota Vikings are still 7-3 and 8-2 ATS on the season, while Atlanta has lost four of five and has not covered a spread since the first Sunday of October. Minnesota has the pass rushers to force QB Matt Ryan into more errant throws. With the teaser odds, we can crawl over important numbers like three, six and seven. In addition, the Vikes are 9-0 ATS against teams averaging 260 or more passing yards past the midpoint of the season the last three years.
Tampa Bay +9 Teaser Odds
Having the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with this many points sure is appealing. Consider both teams are 5-5 and Indianapolis is playing in a much weaker division. Also, the Colts last eight games have been decided by seven or less points and the regular ATS odds suggest a similar result. Next we have a Tampa Bay club that has won four of six and is 5-1 ATS. When comparing the two teams statistically, my numbers find teams like the Bucs are 56-9 (86.1%) on a six-point teaser line. Have to like those odds!
Pittsburgh +10 Teaser Odds
Being able to have a team like the Steelers all the way to +10 is truly inviting. Start with Ben Roethlisberger, who had an extra week to rest, which helps him immensely. While Seattle ranks second in the NFL is fewest pass yards allowed, they held two backup quarterbacks and a struggling Colin Kaepernick under 100 years each, but are permitting 264.5 yards a contest against everyone else. Pittsburgh's pass offense only ranks 13th because Big Ben has not been on the field enough and their potential is explained by being second in yards per pass attempt at 7.9. The Seahawks have holes in secondary which the Steelers can exploit. While this is not vintage Pittsburgh defense, they matchup well strength-wise with Seattle's running and passing games.