It was not a good week for those making sports picks against the betting odds last week. It was by far the strong NFL week for sportsbooks on every level including teaser and parlay cards.
Some books in Las Vegas and offshore also were top heavy on three teams in particular, Green Bay, Atlanta and Denver. Not only was the straight bets heavy, but these teams were on teaser and parlay cards (spreads and money lines), which made the books vulnerable.
However, with underdogs 6-5 ATS on the day, the Packers, Falcons and Broncos all lost outright, making it a bonanza day for the sportsbooks.
Even I was affected and lost on a few teaser cards when Tampa Bay at +8.5, was doing laterals and they fumbled on the final play of the game and Giants player picked the ball up and scored touchdown to blow up my action.
Football handicappers like myself use teasers more frequently to be right side of key numbers to build an edge. While I present a four-team teaser weekly, break these out into two or three-team teasers, which increases your chances of winning, as I have actually been correct overall on 27 of 36 choices.
St. Louis -1 Teaser Odds
In another article here at sportsbookreview.com, I recommend taking the Chicago Bears at +7, but for NFL picks for six-point teaser, I think the opposite. In this NFC matchup, I see two similar clubs with offensive limitations. In this case, we take St. Louis off the seven and slide them under the three, being in position to just essentially win the game. The Rams fit an awesome teaser system that reads like this - Play On any team in a 6-point teaser after eight games that averages less than 1.25 turnovers a contest, versus a team which forces fewer than 1.25 a game, after three consecutive contests where they committed one or less turnovers. Teams like St. Louis are 51-3 on the teaser line since 1983 in this spot.
Miami +12.5 Teaser Odds
After two bad defeats, Miami is due for a better performance and has factors in their favor. For starters, on the teaser line we hop over the +7 and +10, which enhances are value. The Dolphins are a super 29-14-2 ATS against the normal spread as non-division away underdogs, which is significant. We also have a strong situation where road teams forcing one or less turnovers a game, after two consecutive tilts with a turnover margin of -1 or worse, are 19-9 ATS the last three years, losing by only 3.2 points a game.
Denver Pick Teaser Odds
The Broncos defense did not come to play last week and they gave up season-highs in points allowed and yardage. Being back at a mile high after such a loss will undoubtedly sharpen Denver's focus and this also being a division game will help. Football bettors took the Broncos from -7 to -6 and for teaser odds we crawl under the six and three and only require the Denver to beat the Chiefs in any manner possible. Broncos players like the feel of grass under their spikes and are 28-3 on the real stuff when six-point teaser in involved the last three years.
New England -1 Teaser Odds
The New York Giants are only a potential obstacle to New England based on their recent history, which includes a couple Super Bowls. The Patriots are only 3-3 SU with New York recently, but this New England squad has hardly wagered at all this season and being able to have them at -1 sure seems like a very sage wager, especially with the Giants worst-ranked defense in the NFL. Since 2013, Tom Brady and the guys are 20-1 against a teaser line playing against a team with a winning record, with average margin of victory 11.1 points a contest.