Of the four quarterbacks this weekend, Tom Brady is the obvious favorite to lead the weekend in passing yards. With the NFL odds listing him at -110 to lead the way, he is head and shoulders above everyone else, as Matt Ryan is around +250, and Joe Flacco is +300. I don’t think Ryan is going to have a great day against the 49ers, and he hasn’t passed for many yards in his playoff career. I’d go with a 3-unit bet on Brady, and a 1-unit hedge bet on Flacco. That way if Flacco wins, you break even, and if Brady wins, you get paid.
In the receiving yards department, I have a few names that have caught my eye. The favorite is Wes Welker at +300. If Brady wins the passing yards prop, it is likely that Welker will be the one that benefits the most from it. However, I did see a few dark horses that I would love to gamble on. Julio Jones is +525, which is incredible because he is by far the most talented receiver left in the playoffs. Also, Torrey Smith is +700, and that looks like nice money. I’d go with Welker and Smith here, but Julio is nice too it seems, but he also has Roddy White to deal with.
Finally, the rushing yards department looks like a two horse race between Ray Rice and Frank Gore. Rice is +200 and the favorite, while Gore is not far behind at +275. While each of the other prop options hold sove great value for our NFL picks, I think I’m laying off this one, as it is too close between these two. Both will get volume, and both are key in their offense. If I had to choose, I’d go with Gore, but at this point, I’m staying away.
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NFL Picks: 49ers vs Falcons Picks on the Spread