The NFL Odds have opened in favor of the road Colts anywhere from -1 to -2 ½, and even though we are far from this line settling, let’s take a brief early week look at this game, and see what kind of value and numbers we’ll be looking for by week’s end.
Even though he is reportedly 100% healthy, the Texans are going with Case Keenum over Matt Schaub this week, and if Keenum plays well, he may take hold of the starting job for the entire rest of the season. Keenum did not play good or bad two weeks ago against the Chiefs, going 15-25 with 271 yards, a touchdown and a turnover. While he went undrafted, the young quarterback out of Houston University has a great shot at winning the job. However the Colts’ secondary has been playing well this season, and it’s going to be tough against their very underrated defense, and potentially down their best player.
The Texans are only 1-6 ATS this season, and it’s looking more and more like they will miss the playoffs. At 2-5 SU, there is almost no chance unless they can win almost all of their remaining games. Indianapolis is 7-3 SU in their last ten games overall against the Texans, however the Colts are only 4-6 ATS during that same stretch.
Indy has been very good this season on both ends of the ball, and the Texans are going to have a hard time on both ends because of it. Houston is only averaging about 17 points per game this season, while giving up almost 28 per game. The Colts are the exact opposite, holding their opponents to about 18 points per game, while scoring nearly four touchdowns per game.
Indy is 18-4 SU in their last 22 games overall against the Texans, however the Colts have not been very successful going into Houston recently. Over the last seven years, (going back into the Peyton Manning era) the Colts are only 1-6 ATS in their last seven trips to Houston. However the plot thickens even further, as the Texans are only 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
Right now I think the value is firmly on the Colts. I expect this line to settle on the higher side of where it stands now, (at -2 ½ in some cases) as I see the NFL Odds for this one settling around a field goal in favor of Indianapolis. The Colts have been solid this season on defense, and with Keenum under center, I expect the Colts to blitz heavily all night to counter Houston.
There are some major injury concerns right now for the Texans on offense, as Arian Foster and his backup Ben Tate will both likely come down to game time decisions this week. If the Texans don’t have their stellar running game to help out Keenum, the Colts hold tremendous value here.
Personally, I am thinking about taking a very early week shot on the Colts -1 here, because if Foster can’t play, the Texans are toast.
Make sure you check back later this week for my NFL picks on the total and the spread for this game!