NFL Picks: Colts vs. Texans Betting ATS

Jordan Sharp

Saturday, November 2, 2013 7:39 PM GMT

Sunday night is right around the corner, and the Colts and Texans are about ready to kick off their AFC South battle in primetime.

NFL Picks: Colts vs. Texans spread pick 

The NFL Odds have the Colts as -1 road favorites here, with a total of 44. I have already given my pick on the total for this game, so let’s see what kind of value I have uncovered for this weekend’s Sunday night game.

This is how you bet the Total for this game~

Texans banged up back

While it has flown under the radar for the most part, Arian Foster’s status for this game has not dominated the discussion. Foster is listed as questionable for Sunday night’s game with a hamstring injury, and even though he practiced on a limited basis over the past two days, coach Gary Kubiak didn’t seem convinced that Foster was going to be ready to play.

If Foster can’t go for the Texans, it is going to be a huge blow to their offense, and chances of winning this game. Young Case Keenum is starting once again (over a healthy Matt Schaub) and if he is without his stud running back, things might be dicey against the Colts. Ben Tate also practiced, however Tate has not looked like the solid backup to Foster that we have come to expect this season. If he can’t get it going in case of Foster sitting, the Colts have great value here.

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Regressed back

We go from a tail back that is banged up to one that is almost unbelievably not producing, and that’s Trent Richardson. Richardson is regressing on an already bad yards per carry average since being traded to the Colts, and this week should be very telling as to whether or not Richardson is the back of the future in Indianapolis.

The Texans are averaging giving up over 122 yards per game on the ground, which ranks them 28th in the NFL against the run. While they currently have the best pass defense in the NFL in terms of yards per game, the Houston run defense has been disappointing. The loss of Brian Cushing again really hurts them against the run, and that should leave some more holes for Richardson on Sunday. Pep Hamilton went on record earlier this week talking about creating some more space for his RB, and how he can get Richardson in and through that space, and when an OC starts talking about stuff like that, it normally means someone’s touches are going up.

Richardson has looked like he is thinking too much, and he does not look like the quick and powerful back from his rookie season and even at Alabama. He just looks like a huge powerful back that runs about a 4.8 40-yard dash, and that is not going to get it done behind the below average offensive line in Indianapolis.

Let's look at some of the Weekend's Premium Picks~

The Sharp Pick

However even with the struggles of Richardson, something tells me he is going to have a breakout game here on the road. The Texans are still dangerous, but if Richardson can average above four yards per carry Sunday night, I see the Colts coming away with a big win here. There is no way that the Texans play good defense in this game, AND Keenum plays well too. Only one or neither of those things are going to happen here, and with all of the defensive issues for the Texans, I see the Colts getting upwards of 28 points for our NFL picks, at least in this game.

My Pick: Colts -1 at William Hill