NFL Picks Colts vs. Panthers: Trends Suggest Betting Under Monday Night

Kevin Stott

Saturday, October 31, 2015 12:43 PM GMT

Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte is the site of Week 8 Monday Night Football between Andrew Luck and the struggling Colts & Cam Newton and the not-struggling Panthers.

Odds Overview
What
: NFL Week 8—Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers
Where: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
When: Monday, November 2, 2015
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET/5:30 p.m. PT [Tuesday 01:30]
TV: ESPN, Directv 206 (US); Sky Sports 1/HD (UK)
Satellite Radio: SiriusXM >Colts—SIRI 83 (Internet 813), Panthers—SIRI 92 (Internet 804)
Satellite Radio: SiriusXM >National—SIRI 88 (Internet 88)
Weather Forecast: Considerable Cloudiness with occasional Rain, 55°, 60% chance of Rain; Winds NE 3 mph, 9% Humidity
Current Point Spread: Panthers -6½ to -7
Current High Total in Marketplace: 46½ (Most places Wednesday afternoon)
Consensus Total in Marketplace: 46½
Current Low Total in Marketplace: 45½ (MGM Mirage)
Alternate Total: Under 48 -150, Over 48 +110 (Bet365)
Alternate Total: Under 50 -187, Over 50 +137 (bet365)
Alternate Total: Under 51 -225, Over 51 +162 (bet365)
Alternate Total: Under 52 -250, Over 52 +175 (bet365)

 

Current Realities Heading Into This Game
QB Cam Newton (18-16-1 ATS at Home) and the Carolina Panthers (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS) welcome Andrew Luck (14-13 ATS on Road) and the Indianapolis Colts (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS) to Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte on Monday night what should be a very entertaining primetime Week 8 affair from the Tar Heel State and huge game for the visitors who run the risk of falling to 3-5 with a Loss. Current market NFL odds have the host Panthers as 6½- to 7-point Favorites while the Advanced Line (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) out last mid-week had Carolina as 3½-point favorites while the Jay Kornegay and the SuperBook opened the Panthers as 2½-point favorites in this game in their NFL Games of the Year released late Spring. So quite obviously, both Public and Industry perceptions on both the Panthers (Up) and Colts (Down) have changed. The focus of this particular assignment—the Total, currently sits in a 1-point range from 45½ (MGM Mirage) to 46½—while the Panthers Team Total Points here is 27 (Stan James) while the Colts Team Total Points is at 19½ (Stan James). Although a very limited series, here are the 5 lifetime Final Scores (all Regular Season) between the Carolina Panthers and the Indianapolis Colts.

 

Final Scores in All 5 Meetings in Carolina Panthers-Indianapolis Colts Series
2011—Panthers 27 @ Colts 19 Total: 46½ Result: Under (by ½ point)
2007—Colts 31 @ Panthers 7 Total: 44 Result: Under
2003—Panthers 23 @ Colts 20 (OT; RCA Dome, Indianapolis) Total: 38 Result: Over
1998—Panthers 27 @ Colts 19 (RCA Dome, Indianapolis) Total: 49½ Result: Under
1995—@ Panthers 13 Colts 10 (Memorial Stadium, Clemson, South Carolina) Total: 39 Result: Under

 

Recent Relevant Series Trends and Game Expectations
As you can see, the NFC’s somewhat new (1995) Carolina Panthers and the AFC’s Indianapolis Colts have only played 5 times in the history in the modern NFL, so trying to glean much handicapping logic from such a small and strung out sample size carries only so much weight and it seems both teams both recent Totals (Over/Under) Trends would be a better tool in helping to analyze the 46½ Total which is now hanging in most places for this game. The Under is 4-1 ATS in the 5 meetings—Carolina is 4-1 SU—in this series, and the five games have averaged a total of 39.2 ppg with future Hall of Famer and current Denver Broncos starter Peyton Manning (1998-2011 Colts) being the Colts QB for four of the five meetings (Under 3-1). In the last meeting between these two, the Panthers won 27-19 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis in 2011, covering as a 3-point favorite while the last time they met here at Bank of America Stadium in a game which went Under by just a ½ a point (46½), while in the last meeting here in Charlotte, Manning the Elder and the Colts won 31-7 and easily covered ATS as 7-point favorites in a game which went Under by 6 points (44). The Panthers are 4-1 ATS the L5 against the Colts and with TE Greg Olsen, WR Ted Ginn Jr. (13 receptions, 324 yards, 3 TDs) and bullworker RB Jonathan Stewart, Carolina should have enough to keep Indianapolis off balance Defensively here and should be able to control the ball, and thus the tempo of the game. On Monday Night Football, Indianapolis is 2-5 ATS as Road Underdog and 2-6 ATS in its L8 overall while Carolina is 3-2 ATS as Home Favorite and the Panthers are 11-1 ATS when SU winner on Mondays. And with Carolina an impressive 13-6-1 ATS in their L20 Home games here at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, the team undefeated and the whole organization, city, state and region feeling good about the Panthers, the Colts are going into a Snake’s Den at the worst time. But with the strength of competition in the AFC South—a combined 8-19 SU into Week 8—the Colts can afford to lose this game, fall to 3-5 and still win their division which includes the Tennessee Titans (1-5), Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5) and Houston Texans (2-5).

 

But what about the Total?
Despite the perceived desperation coming in here by the visiting Colts (Over 7-1 L8 Indianapolis games in November), the weakness of the Colts OL and the nagging Injury to Luck combined with the lack of Confidence coming off the saints Loss will make Indianapolis content to gamble in a low-scoring, chess match-like game with the visitors worried about losing and the host Panthers worried about losing their unbeaten record and possibly Home-field advantage in the NFC. With this in mind and the Under 10-4 ATS the L14 Colts games and the Under 6-2-1 in the Panthers L9 games here at Home at Bank of America Stadium, backing the Under is the call, but only for a moderate amount as the Carolina side may be a better play and primetime TV games have a habit of trickling Over with some late game Point Spread shenanigans. If playing the Under, best hope that doesn’t happen here and maybe a First Half Under would be more suitable depending on your personal sports gambling style.

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Panthers 26 Colts 17
NFL WEEK 8 TOTALS PICK: Under 47 (-133) (Bet365)