NFL Picks - Colts vs. Jaguars Week 4 Predictions

Jacksonville Jaguars players in action

Tuesday, September 27, 2016 3:45 PM GMT

Week 4 offers the first London game of the season when Colts and Jaguars collide. Injuries and early sharp money had betting lines moving Indy from a road dog to a 2.5 point favorite. Let's grab a cup of tea and review where the best value lies.

Jaguars What To Watch For
Are you aware that each of the past two seasons, an NFL head coach of a disappointing AFC team has been fired after a Week 4 loss in London? It was Oakland's Dennis Allen two years ago and Miami's Joe Philbin in 2015. Thus I'd definitely be concerned if I'm Jaguars coach Gus Bradley as he was very much on the hot seat entering the season and it's scorching hot right now with Jacksonville a hugely disappointing 0-3.

Jacksonville really should have won Sunday at home against Baltimore but lost 19-17 on a 54-yard field goal by the Ravens' Justin Tucker with 1:02 left. The Jaguars kept shooting themselves in the foot in the fourth quarter. They forced three straight Ravens turnovers in the quarter but scored only three points. Blake Bortles' interception problems continued as he had two more and Jason Myers had a field goal blocked. Bortles is second in the NFL with six interceptions. The rushing attack isn't helping much as the Jags had just 48 yards on 21 attempts vs. Baltimore and rank second to last in the NFL in rushing at 55.0 yards per game. The offensive line has not played well at all. The Jaguars have only four plays of 30 or more yards through the first three games. They had 27 of those all of the last year.

At least September is over because the Jaguars are 1-13 in that month under Bradley. He is 12-39 in four seasons, the second-worst winning percentage (.235) of any NFL coach with at least 50 games. With the Jags on their bye after this game, Bradley's going to be fired if his team loses.

Jacksonville is 1-2 ATS on NFL betting odds and 2-1 O/U.

 

Colts What To Watch For
Indianapolis (1-2) avoided the same 0-3 start as the Jaguars with a 26-22 home win over San Diego on Sunday. Andrew Luck hit T.Y. Hilton on a 63-yard touchdown pass with 1:17 left for the winning score. It was Luck' his 14th career game-winning drive, tied for the fourth-most in the NFL since he entered the league in 2012.

Luck threw for 331 yards on the day, already matching his 300-yard games from last year with No. 2,  while Frank Gore rushed 21 times for 82 yards and a touchdown. Hilton caught eight for 174 and that score. With receiver Donte Moncrief out injured (he won't play in London, either), the Colts utilized much more two tight end personnel. Indy also welcomed back top cornerback Vontae Davis and safety Clayton Geathers after both missed the first two games due to injury, and the defense played its best game of the season. Geathers forced a fumble on the Chargers' final drive that sealed the win.

Indianapolis is 1-2 ATS on NFL picks this season and 2-1 O/U.

 

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars
The Colts had won six straight vs. the Jaguars before the teams' final meeting last year in Florida, a 51-16 Jacksonville route . Luck was out injured, while Bortles threw for 250 yards and three scores. It ended the Colts' NFL-record streak of 16 straight wins against AFC South foes. I'm going to take the points for my NFL week 4 predictions because it's must-have for the Jags. Go 'over' the total. 

 

NFL Free Picks: Jaguars +2.5
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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