We got our butts handed to us in Week 6, and even though it wasn’t a complete loss, it wasn’t great either. The great thing about the NFL is that there is always another game, and for Monday night, I am coming back with a vengeance. I have three final prop NFL picks for you for Week 6 that I am feeling really good about.
The NFL Odds for tonight’s game between the Colts and Chargers are very close, and to find value elsewhere, let’s see if we can cash some props tonight, the first two coming from Bet365, while the final play comes from Pinnacle Sportsbook.
The Colts come into this game only losing once this season SU, but the Chargers should not be overlooked. However the Colts have beaten defenses twice as good as San Diego’s, and they have already won on the west coast this season.
A big reason why has been the play of Reggie Wayne. Wayne comes into this game with two touchdowns one the season, and going up against the Chargers should bolster that number. Through five games, the San Diego defense has given up over 1000 yards and seven touchdowns to opposing wide receivers. If there was ever a time for Wayne to get another TD, it’s under the lights on Monday Night Football. After tonight’s game, Wayne will likely be right back into the top 20 most targeted receivers in the NFL. He is sitting on 42 targets this season through five games, and 25% of those targets have been in the red zone.
My Pick: Reggie Wayne TD (+100)
3 Unanswered scores
This prop and others burned me in Week 6, but I am sticking to my guns, as the two we lost on this prop were inches from going the other way. For the Monday night game, a lot of scoring is probable, but one team doing all the scoring is probably not going to be the case. I can’t see either one of these teams getting beat down the field three times in a row.
The Colts are going to try and run the ball a ton in this game on the Chargers’ 24th ranked run defense, while Phillip Rivers is going to try and chuck the ball down field as much as possible. With little run game to speak of, even if Rivers gets rolling, the chances of the Colts turning him over is high in this game. The Colts’ secondary has been very good so far this season, and as long as neither team starts the game slow, I see a back and forth game without three unanswered scores.
My Pick: ‘No’ (+125)
Read our NFL Picks: Colts vs. Chargers Betting the Total for more free NFL picks.
Gross passing yards
This prop is from Pinnacle, and it’s the battle between QBs. Phillip Rivers is favored against Andrew Luck in this contest by -15 ½ passing yards, and I think Luck has the value. At +100, if he either has more, or is within 15 passing yards of Rivers at the end of the game, this prop gets the win.
I am going with Luck because not only does his team have the better secondary, but also because I don’t think this game is going to be a blowout on either end. Luck will have to keep pace with Rivers in this game if the Colts are going to win, and even if he falls behind early, that makes it even better for taking the yards with Luck. Indianapolis has been scored on first in their last two games, and Rivers has just enough weapons left to put up a big first half, which could force Luck to throw the ball more than Pep Hamilton plans to.
My Pick: Andrew Luck +15 ½ passing yards (+100)