NFL Picks: Colts vs. Chargers Betting the Spread

David Lawrence

Thursday, October 10, 2013 5:50 PM GMT

Thursday, Oct. 10, 2013 5:50 PM GMT

Monday Night Football should be a hell of a showdown between AFC playoff contenders. The 4-1 SU Colts head into San Diego to play the 2-3 SU Chargers.

Games played now will affect if San Diego has an outside chance of sneaking into that final wildcard spot, and a big home win against the Colts would do a lot to help that. However, will Andrew Luck and company come in and take care of business?

The NFL Odds for this matchup are in favor of the road Colts at -1 ½, with a total of 50 points. I have a nice play on the spread for this one, so follow along as we try and take advantage of the value. 

Road warriors

No matter the team, no matter the situation, it appears as if he Colts just find ways to win and cover this season. They likely won’t exceed their ATS numbers from a year ago, but on Monday Night Football, it appears as if they are undervalued again.  The Colts are 4-2 SU in their last six road games, (3-0 ATS in their last three games) and even though the San Diego defense plays much better at home, the Colts have the ability to cover in this one.

San Diego is giving up 25 points per game this season, and even though they have the offense to outscore those numbers, Indianapolis is going to be able to hold down the Charger passing attack. With little to no run game to speak of in San Diego, it makes it very easy for Greg Manusky and the Colts’ defense. Plus, the Colts have been very good against the pass this season, with seven interceptions through five games.

Another key for the Colts in this game will be the play of Trent Richardson. The Colts have proven they can throw on almost anyone, but the newly acquired Richardson has yet to make this Colts’ ground game very good. However I see him having a small break out game here against the soft Chargers front. I’m not saying he will have 167 total yards like LeSean McCoy did in Week 2, but 100 total yards of offense is almost a lock for Richardson if he receives 20 touches.

It’s hard to exploit any weakness of the Colts if you’re San Diego. They could load up to stop Richardson only to be beaten over the top. If their 3-4 defense decides to drop more guys into coverage, Luck is going to call a run play, and Richardson might have more than 100 total yards. Either way, the Chargers are going to need several turnovers to win this game, and even that’s a stretch. The Chargers have a total of two forced turnovers this season through five games, and the Colts’ offense doesn’t turn the ball over almost at all.

Chargers vs. Colts Opening Odds - Let's look back to see how they've moved

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The Sharp Pick

San Diego is giving up over 400 yards of total offense per game, and a mild night in San Diego might just unleash the Colts’ offense once again. While Indy was not very successful in the Peyton Manning era when it came to winning in San Diego, the Luck era should be a new chapter.

The Chargers are only 2-4 ATS in their last six home games, while the Colts have won their last three games ATS. I am riding the Colts for my NFL picks until they burn me, so lay the point with Indy on Monday night.

My Pick: Colts -1 at Bet 365

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