NFL Picks: Colts Player Props for Thursday Night Vs. Texans

Matthew Jordan

Thursday, October 8, 2015 1:52 PM GMT

Indy is the two-time AFC South champ and heavy favorite to make it a 3peat. A win Thursday night in Houston would go a long way to making that happen. Let's examine some Colts NFL player props.

Indianapolis is on a pretty remarkable run right now against its AFC South foes. Now, I grant you that it's probably the worst division in football and the Titans and Jaguars have been two of the NFL's worst teams the past couple of years (or longer in Jacksonville's case). But still, the Colts have won 15 straight inside the division, which ties the 1972-73 Miami Dolphins (AFC East) for the longest streak since 1970. The streak began Dec. 30, 2012, when the Colts beat Houston 28-16. The Colts are also 18-2 in division games since 2012, a winning percentage that trails only Denver (18-1) over the same span. It's just more proof that having a good quarterback means everything in the NFL. Indy has had Andrew Luck in that stretch. The Texans, Titans and Jaguars  have all cycled through some very forgettable guys under center. The Colts also have won their last eight Thursday night matchups (but five of those by less than a touchdown), including 7-0 vs. AFC South teams. The Colts are -300 on NFL odds to win the AFC South.

 

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Colts 'Over/Under' 23.5 Completions, 267.5 Passing Yards, 2 TDs
So why isn't Luck individually listed here? It's still not 100 percent certain the former No.  1 overall pick will play after missing Sunday's win over Jacksonville with a shoulder injury (it's partially separated if you believe some reports). Luck took the majority of practice snaps on Tuesday, however, and said he expected to. But Luck is listed as questionable and Coach Chuck Pagano said his team will "do the right thing" in regards to jeopardizing the health of the club's franchise quarterback. But you know Luck wants to play in his hometown of Houston and it's an important division game. Luck will test the shoulder before the game. If he can't go, Matt Hasselbeck will start the second straight week. He has been fighting a virus that limited his practice time this week. The Colts obviously are a tad concerned as they re-signed QB Josh Johnson on Wednesday so they had three quarterbacks. The Colts had released Johnson following Sunday's win over Jacksonville. I think Luck plays. He was 25-for-44 for 370 yards and three scores in a 33-28 win at Houston last season and 18-for-34 for 187 yards and two scores in a home win vs. the Texans.

NFL Free Picks: 'OVER' all -- if Luck plays. It’ll be his only game over a span of 20 days. Indianapolis can't run the ball much so Luck will be slinging it, even with a wounded wing.

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T.Y. Hilton O/U 5 Receptions, 74.5 Receiving Yards
Obviously betting on Hilton depends on which Colts quarterback plays. Hasselbeck targeted him 13 times last week in the overtime win over the Jaguars and Hilton caught seven for 67 yards. He's looking for his first touchdown of the season. Hilton seems to love facing the Texans, however. In six games against them, he has 35 catches for 661 yards and six touchdowns. Three times he has eclipsed 100 receiving yards in a game, and he has thrived at NRG Stadium. In his past two games there, Hilton has totals of 121 yards and 223 yards to go with four combined touchdowns. Hilton’s 223-yard game last year in a Thursday night game in Houston came one yard short of the Colts’ franchise record – set by Raymond Berry in 1957.

NFL Free Picks: 'OVER' for both.

 

O/U 45.5 Yards As Longest Field Goal Made Of Game
Check out my story on SBR this week on Week 5 Bovada specials. There's  a prop on total missed field goals in Week 5 after there were 14 of them last week. The Colts have one of the best kickers in NFL history in Adam Vinatieri, although he's only 3-for-5 this year. His long is 54. Houston's Nick Novak is 0-for-1. The team had Randy Bullock, who was 5-for-6 with a long of 47. But he was released after Week 3 as he had missed two extra points in the first three weeks. During the past two seasons, Bullock was 66-for-66 on extra-point attempts. Novak spent 2011-14 with San Diego.

NFL Free Pick: Inside the dome, both kickers should be able to hit from long range. Go 'OVER.'