Cleveland Browns season wins future odds update
The Cleveland Browns are a very interesting team this offseason. LVH Sportsbook in Las Vegas has the Browns at an even 6 wins this offseason, with the over cashing at -130 on the NFL odds boards, and the under at +110.
The Browns come in ranked 21st in strength of schedule in the NFL this season, and even though their opponents’ winning percentage from last season is not that good, I expect it to go up tremendously in 2013. The Browns’ first four weeks are pretty brutal as well. They open up against Miami at home in Week 1, followed by trips to Baltimore and Minnesota, and then another home game against their in-state rival, the Bengals. They could very easily be 0-4 SU after the first four weeks of the season. That of course would give a ton of value to the under at +110 for the Browns, but I'm not quite sold on either side of the Browns’ season win total this season. I handicapped them at six wins this year, and looking at it again I still think there is minimal value in Cleveland this season.
While the Browns are a very improved team, especially on defense this season, the Miami Dolphins are going to be a tough matchup to start the season at home for Cleveland. The NFL odds have this game as a pick em’ this offseason, and the two teams are both dead even at -110. The total is only 39 ½ points this offseason. It has dropped all the way from 41 since the number opened several months ago. Obviously both of these defenses are going to be the story for their teams this season, but 39 ½ does seem just a bit low, but the last two times these two have played against one another, the games didn’t get out of the teens. Surprisingly, Cleveland is 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in the last five times they have played the Dolphins since 2004.
The Sharp Pick
As I kind of alluded in the schedule section, I'm laying off the Browns altogether in the season wins NFL picks. There's too much chalk in betting the over, even though I do somewhat like their chances of being a 7-9 SU football team this season. The under is enticing, especially because this is the Browns we’re talking about, but I think they are going to be a little better than what some people think.
I expect Norv Turner to work wonders with that offense this season compared to last, especially if Josh Gordon stays out of trouble. On the other side Cleveland has remade their defense by bringing in the likes of Paul Kruger and Quentin Groves, so even though they won’t be good, being ok in this league is around the 6-7 win mark, so it’s just too close to call for me. I see value in a ton of other places this offseason, so why waste your time with a coin flip bet on the Browns?
My Pick: No Play
Week 1 Lean: Dolphins -110