NFL Picks: Chiefs vs. Saints in Preseason Week 1

Jordan Sharp

Monday, August 5, 2013 1:36 PM GMT

Monday, Aug. 5, 2013 1:36 PM GMT

This is my favorite game of all of Week 1 of the NFL Preseason, and even though the game itself doesn’t count, something tells me we are going to see some regular season-style play calling from these two coaches in this game.


The NFL odds for this one are in favor of the Saints at -3, with a total of 36 points. Will Andy Reid and Sean Peyton want to make a splash in their new/returning jobs, or will they play this game conservatively? 

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Coaches making statements

The preseason and the post-game press conferences are where NFL coaches start to make their reputation known, and what better time for these two coaches to remind everyone why they have been so gainfully employed in the NFL for so many years?

With Reid, he is not only going to want to try out his new personnel, but to come into Kansas City after a 2-14 SU season, they will be wanting a win, no matter if it is on the road and in the preseason. Reid will want to test fire his new offense and I think we can expect the starters for Kansas City to play in the game for at least two or three series on offense and defense.

For Peyton, getting back on the job is going to reignite this offense and what better way to shake off the cobwebs than to try and run up the score in a preseason game? With both of these coaches in somewhat new positions, I think it’s safe to say that winning this game might mean something to them, which means that the scoring will probably be inflated a bit in this game. Both coaches are going to want to send messages; Reid to Philadelphia, and Peyton to Roger Goddell.

Neither of these coaches has great preseason records both SU and ATS. In his tenure in Philadelphia, Reid was 25-28-3 ATS, while during his time with the Saints, Peyton is 15-15 SU in the preseason. On the Saints side, they don’t really have to evaluate many new parts on offense, but defense is where they will try and experiment, which might lead to some scoring from the Chiefs. All in all, the spread is dead to me in the NFL betting lines for this game, but considering the coaches in this game, I think a bet on the total could be the wager with the most value. ‘Overs’ have been cashing very well in the first week of two of the preseason over the last several years.

Our NFL offseason coverage continues with the Season Win Total Odds previews for both the Kansas City Chiefs and the New Orleans Saints!

The Sharp Pick

If the line was out right now, I would probably be telling you to go out and bet on the 1H ‘Over’ in this game, but until that line comes out, the game total looks tasty as well for your sports picks. Both coaches will likely play their starters for most of the first quarter, and I believe that both will not take their feet off the gas at all in this one.

This is another game where I could see the score going over 20 points in the first half, which would seemingly make the game total a good bet. Even though you should keep your bets low in the preseason, this line seems to have value. I could easily see a score of 24-17 to end this game, which is why I think you should add the ‘Over’ to your NFL picks.

[gameodds]16/227788/?r-1=43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

NFL Pick: Choose the Chiefs/Saints to go OVER 36 points.  

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