NFL Picks: Chiefs vs. Eagles Betting the Total

Doug Upstone

Thursday, September 19, 2013 7:02 PM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 19, 2013 7:02 PM UTC

We finish off our complete Thursday Night Football coverage with a quick look at the Total in tonight's Chiefs vs. Eagles Week 3 matchup.

Read our Week 3 Thursday Night Football article for a breakdown of tonight's game!

The total on Andy Reid’s return to Philly has been on the move and over two-thirds of the wagering public is forecasting a higher scoring game than what the odds makers originally thought it might be.

Kansas City making its case with defense and enough offense

The Chiefs have not started 3-0 in three years, when they won the AFC West and went to the playoffs. Kansas City had a strong defensive club in 2010 which allowed 315 points, their lowest figure in the past six years.

This Kansas City club has started in a similar matter, ranked third in total defense and second in yards per points. This is important facing a Philadelphia offense which has more weapons than Iran ever had and playing containment defense, not allowing the Eagles playmakers to generate big plays.

On offense, the Chiefs are merely efficient in scoring 22.5 points a game, with Alex Smith as the field general. Reid is not asking Smith to do something he is not capable of, but rather to move the chains and get his team into scoring position, with further development in the offense coming with greater familiarity.

Only once in the last seven years has K.C. gained more yards than it allowed, which was 2010. Kansas City is 2-0 ‘Under’ to start under Reid and if they want to keep winning, defense for now is their calling card.

Looking to play the points? Look no further. Check out our Chiefs vs. Eagles Betting the Spread article!

No Lack of Scoring in Philly

After two contests, the average score of an Eagles game is 61.5 points. First-year coach Chip Kelly has made an impression with his quick tempo offense and Michael Vick and the rest of the Philadelphia players have adapted swiftly.

The key to the offense is the same as it was in Eugene, run the ball with quick-hitting plays and create indecision in the defense, making them think rather react and test them with deep throws. Along with Vick, running backs LeSean McCoy and Bryce Brown, the Eagles have three threats on offense that can run with the football. 

This sets up WR DeSean Jackson, who has reemerged as the vertical threat he was a few years ago and enters Week 3 with 16 catches and a league-high 297 receiving yards. He already has as many touchdowns as all of last season (2) and has five catches of 25 or more yards.

Interested in more NFL action? Follow our continuing NFL odds coverage! Check out our NFL Week 3 Betting Odds Report!

Eagles Defense has to Play Better

As mentioned in the opening odds report for this matchup, the Philadelphia defense has conceded 53 points in the last six quarters of football and has been extremely ineffective, which is why they are ranked 30th in total defense.

The Eagles could benefit from facing a team which is not as skilled pushing the ball down the field. But given the spread and total, Philly is 12-1 ‘Over’ when both teams register 20 or more points.

The Total is Trending Upward

After starting at 49 points Sunday, the total on this tilt has been moving in half point increments to its present level of 51.5 in the NFL betting odds. Doing research, I found totals moving in these parameters are 12-9 ‘Under’.


Total Mania

This Kansas City crew has taken to Reid’s teachings and if you go back to last year, they are on a 9-1 and 6-0 ‘Under’ roll.

Philadelphia might use more multiple receiver sets against the Chiefs, looking for the weak link to take advantage, which could lead to big plays. Though this is a different Eagles team from the past under Kelly, certain football laws still apply and Philadelphia fits one with their 13-2 ‘Under’ mark after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more in last game.

In addition, the K.C. running game is potent enough to move the chains, as is the short passing offense, which can chew up the clock. With the Chiefs 14-5 ‘Under’ off one or more consecutive ‘Under’s the last three seasons, I’ll go against the football betting public.

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NFL Pick: Play the UNDER 51 points for your sports picks in this game, at Bovada

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