NFL Picks: Chiefs vs. Broncos Betting the Spread

Darin Zank

Wednesday, November 13, 2013 9:18 PM GMT

Wednesday, Nov. 13, 2013 9:18 PM GMT

The only remaining undefeated team in the league is getting almost two scores from a second-place team on this week's NFL odds line.

That's the situation we've got heading into Sunday night's game in Denver matching the 8-1 Broncos against the 9-0 Kansas City Chiefs (8:30 pm ET, NBC). 

The knock on the Chiefs so far is that they haven't played anybody of any real quality. They've beaten Dallas and Philadelphia, two 5-5 teams, but other than that they've been picking off some of the weaker sisters of the NFL. 

Sunday KC will try to deal with the most prolific offense in the league so far this season, the one piloted by Peyton Manning that's averaging almost six touchdowns per game.

Chiefs-Broncos: The Betting Line

As of Wednesday morning Denver could be gotten at -7.5 at some online sportsbooks, like Heritage, while Kansas City could be found at +9.5 at others, like 5Dimes and Pinnacle. Also, the Chiefs could be bet on the money-line getting +325 at Pinnacle.

Chiefs-Broncos Recent History

Denver, with Manning at QB, swept two games from KC last year by scores of 17-9 and 38-3.

The Broncos went into Week 12 last year with a record of 7-3, while the Chiefs were 1-9, on their way to 2-14. Denver was lined as a 10-point road favorite for this game, at Arrowhead Stadium.

KC kicked two field goals in the first quarter and held that lead until late in the first half, when Manning hit Jacob Tamme for a seven-yard score.

The Chiefs got another field goal midway through the third quarter to re-take the lead, but Denver answered with another Manning TD pass, this one to Demaryius Thomas, putting the Broncos up for good.

A fourth-quarter field goal gave Denver the final winning margin of 17-9, but KC, as the home-dog, covered the spread.

The Chiefs out-rushed the Broncos that day 148-95 and held the ball for almost 32 minutes. In the NFL teams that out-rush their opponents cover the spread about 65 percent of the time; teams that win the time-of-possession battle cover almost 70 percent of the time; and teams that do both cover the spread over 80 percent of the time.

In the second meeting between these two teams last year, five weeks later, Denver came in favored by 17 points, and had that covered by halftime on its way to the 38-3 victory. This time it was the Broncos that dominated statistically, out-rushing KC 172-93 and holding the ball for 37 and a half minutes.

These two teams play Sunday, then again in two weeks back in Kansas City.

Chiefs-Broncos By the Numbers

KC, on average, is getting out-gained by opponents this season by 10 yards per game, while out-rushing foes by about a yard per game.

Denver, meanwhile, is out-gaining opponents by 84 YPG, and out-rushing them by 18 YPG.

Injury Update

Manning suffered a “lower leg injury” late in last Sunday's victory at San Diego, but is listed as “probable” for this Sunday's game.

On the other side of this match-up Chiefs WR Dwayne Bowe got busted with some pot earlier this week, but it looks like he will play Sunday, if he can get out of bed on time.

The Opening Odds for this game are available here~

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":227025, "sportsbooksIds":[43], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Our Take on Sunday's Game

This is the one we've been waiting for; are the Chiefs for real, or just pretenders? Offensively, KC is still a bit pedestrian. And while its defense ranks right near the top in several categories, who have they played? That unit will be challenged by Manning and the Denver offense.

At the moment, we just haven's seen enough from the Chiefs to take them here. So barring a blizzard, we'll give the points and go with Denver for our free NFL spread pick on this game.

Free Pick: Back the Broncos at the -7.5 points offered at Ladbrokes.

We'll revisit this game later this week with a pick on the total, because we always like to keep our audience riveted.

Have you seen Jason Lake's pick on this game?

comment here