NFL Picks: Chiefs vs Bills

Joe Catalano

Wednesday, October 30, 2013 7:19 PM GMT

The Buffalos Bills play host to the Kansas City Chiefs this Sunday. Where have we decided to place our bet?


Sunday afternoon, the Alex Smith and the Kansas City Chiefs (8-0) take their perfect record into Ralph Wilson Stadium against the Buffalo Bills (3-5) and look to remain the only undefeated team in the NFL.

Kickoff is scheduled for Sunday, November 3rd at 1:00 p.m. ET in Orchard Park, New York. This game can be seen on CBS television in all local areas.

Currently, the NFL odds at Bet 365 Sportsbook lists the Chiefs as a modest 3 point betting favorite and the total for the game is listed at 40.

Perfect Timing?

It has been noted several times that the Chiefs have been able to remain unbeaten by facing the opposition’s backup quarterback due to injury. This week, it’s the same story as E.J. Manuel is out for the Bills and backup, Thad Lewis, will be starting. That said, Lewis is listed as probable and that has to make the Chiefs feel even that much more confident. The Bills have gotten so desperate that they acquired Matt Flynn.

With all that said, Lewis has been more than serviceable as he’s thrown for over 200 yards in each of his 3 games.

Injuries at the Key Positions

We’re still waiting on the status of Bills starting running back, C.J. Spiller, for Sunday’s game. Spiller missed week 8 with an ankle sprain and is listed as questionable. Although the Chiefs are somewhat of a different team with a different head coach in Andy Reid, Spiller lit the Chiefs up for 170 yards last season with 2 touchdowns in their only meeting and Spiller would love to be able to play. If Spiller is unable to go, a banged up Fred Jackson will fill the role. Jackson has 425 yards and 6 touchdowns on the season. Jackson is listed as probable and expected to play.

Buffalo is fairly deep at the receiving position, but leading receiver Steve Johnson is also battling a hip flexor. The Bills are a beaten up bunch and desperately need a win in this game to crawl towards the .500 mark. Staring them in the face is a team that’s seen everything go their way.

Redemption

When you think about Alex Smith and Andy Reid, the word redemption comes to mind. After an outstanding season with the 49’ers, Smith lost his job to Colin Kaepernick due to injury. This is a player, when he was on the field, actually produced.

In Andy Reid’s case, he had given the Philadelphia Eagles over a decade of great service but was made the scapegoat when the Eagles fell apart last season. The Eagles are still a lousy team while Michael Vick continues to say the right things, but not earn his contract and Andy Reid is the only coach in the NFL without a loss attached to his resume this season; I call that redemption at its best.

The Chiefs have won by Alex Smith doing what he does best and that’s playing conservative and not making mistakes. Jamaal Charles has also been a force in the backfield with 635 yards rushing and 6 touchdowns on the season. K.C. doesn’t have one standout star besides Charles, but the “D-Brothers” (Donnie Avery, Dwayne Bowe, and Dexter McCluster) have done a good enough job to leave the offense unpredictable to opposing defenses.

While the Chiefs defense is above average against the rush and pass, the Bills will need to get a good running game going as Kansas City is 4th in the NFL against the pass.

[gameodds]16/226993/?r3=43-19-349/dec&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

Outcome

Kansas City has another great situation, facing a banged up Bills team and the point spread is very low for an unbeaten team. Take the Chiefs for your NFL pick and lay the points as they go 9-0.

NFL Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -3 at Bet 365