NFL Picks: Chiefs' Defense Will Step Up Against Inconsistent Bears So Bet 'Under' 45

Steven Suarez

Saturday, October 10, 2015 10:58 PM GMT

Will the Chiefs defense put on a better show in Week 5, or will we once again see a high-scoring game involving Kansas City? Let's break down the NFL odds.

Odds Overview
The Chiefs are one of the biggest favorites on the NFL odds board for Week 5, with sportsbooks showing them favored in the 9 to 10-point range.

What about the total? That's what we're most interested in for this breakdown, and as of now the O/U is trading at an even 45 points at a lot of the sites we've checked on.

 

Kansas City Chiefs
Tipped as one of the better defensive units before the season started, we've seen the exact oppposite through the first four games of the season. The Chiefs are allowing 31.2 points per game, which ties them with the Bears for the worst mark in the league. 

After a win over Houston in Week 1, we've seen Kansas City fall apart, although we do have to recognize that the competition has been stiff. The Chiefs have had to contend with three of the better offenses in the NFL in Green Bay, Denver and Cincinnati, all of whom have been putting up a lot points so far in 2015/16. In those three losses, Kansas City have surrendered a total of 105 points, which just isn't going to cut it at this level.

One would have to figure the Chiefs will see more success against a banged up Bears team that's led by a QB in Jay Cutler, who while talented makes some questionable decisions. This is a great opportunity for Kansas City to regain some swagger defensively, and the odds suggest that's what will happen.

 

Chicago Bears
The Bears finally picked up their first W of the season in Week 4, as they topped Oakland 22-20 at home to spare what would been further embarrasment to what's already been a rocky start. They were able to hang around with Green Bay in their season opener but have gotten crushed by both Arizona and Seattle, and we're only a month in.

Injuries have gotten in the way, and it started early with first round draft pick Kevin White getting hurt before the season even started. Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffery have already been dealing with injuries too, though Cutler recently returned to the fold. Jeffery hasn't been so lucky though, and it looks like he's in serious doubt to play this weekend. Fellow wideout Eddie Royal is also dealing with an injury and is questionable.

Should those two miss out, we can expect a lot of targets to go the way of tight end Martellus Bennett, along with running back Matt Forte. Marquess Wilson would also pick up extra looks.

 

O/U Pick
While some may be tempted by taking the OVER, considering how poor both of these defenses has been this season, we're going the other way with our picks for this game.

We've seen what the Bears are capable of when they're at full strength offensively, and the Chiefs haven't done much to instill confidence defensively, at least through the first month of the season, but this Chicago team is really banged up at the moment. Their top two receivers are questionable to play, which would leave Cutler with a less-than-stellar supporting cast against KC.

Though the Chiefs have underperformed in a big way defensively, they should start faring better in that regard sooner rather than later, as they do have the talent in place. Since they're big-time favorites on the board for Week 5, we see them getting an early lead and then letting Charles run loose and killing the game in the process. We see a 28-14 type game here and therefore we will take the UNDER with our NFL picks.

NFL Pick: UNDER 45 at 5Dimes

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