NFL Picks: Chiefs are Best ATS Value Remaining on Week 11 Odds Board

Jason Lake

Sunday, November 22, 2015 1:16 PM GMT

With all the obvious candidates on the Week 11 NFL odds board already scooped up, the Kansas City Chiefs are the best value on the board this Sunday in San Diego.

Jason's 2015 record as of Nov. 21: 39-34-2 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 22-29 Total
 

I remember back in the day, when I used to watch television, there would be a writers' strike every few years. Shows that didn't have episodes in the can would go on hiatus. David Letterman would make toast. Eventually, sponsors would grumble, fresh contracts would be signed, and life on the tube would begin anew. We are only as good as our material.

So it is with this week's edition of the BeeVee Awards. All the tastiest underdogs on our NFL odds board have already been snapped up, like Buffalo +7, Cincinnati +5, and even San Francisco +13.5. But you don't have to be getting points to be a value pick. Let's trot out this week's remaining nominees, and please, be kind – they're not used to the attention.

Indianapolis +5.5 at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS)
St. Louis +2.5 at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX)
Tampa Bay +6 at Philadelphia (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX)
Denver at Chicago +1 (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS)
Kansas City –3 at San Diego (4:05 p.m. ET, CBS)

And the winners are... the Kansas City Chiefs! Here to accept the BeeVee is team co-owner and CEO Clark Hunt, who.. what's that? Apparently Mr. Hunt is attending a Major League Soccer fundraiser. In lieu of the BeeVee, he's asking for any donations you can come up with – used clothing, books, blankets. Please give generously.

 

Our Chief Weapon Is Value
Kansas City (4-5 SU and ATS) may be the road favorite in this matchup, but we still see a lot of betting value in this under-appreciated team. The Chiefs have been plagued by some bad bounces this year; they've played well enough to sit at No. 9 overall (No. 9 offense, No. 12 defense, No. 8 special teams) on the efficiency charts at Football Outsiders. That's two spots ahead of the AFC West-leading Denver Broncos.

It's also 17 spots in front of the Chargers (2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS). This season just keeps getting worse for the Bolts, who have been torn apart by injuries on the offensive line and at wide receiver/tight end. WR Malcolm Floyd (shoulder) has been ruled out for Week 11. TE Ladarius Green (ankle) and RG D.J. Fluker (concussion) are questionable. And there are 10 Chargers on injured reserve, including center Chris Watt (shoulder) and leading WR Keenan Allen (lacerated kidney).

The Chargers have still managed to field the No. 12-ranked offense on the DVOA charts, but that might be the upper ceiling for how well they can perform with so many missing persons. San Diego also ranks No. 31 overall on defense and special teams, the two parts of the game most overlooked by recreational bettors when they make their NFL picks. We're going to Value Town, Value Town, here we come.

Free NFL Pick: Take the Chiefs -3 (-115) at Heritage

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