When we glance over the NFL odds for Week 16, we see Kansas City favored by 6.5 points for this visit of Andrew Luck and company. The Chiefs are 11-3 SU and 8-6 ATS and the Colts are 9-5 SU and 8-6 ATS.
The O/U is at either 43.5 or 44. The OVER has gone 8-6 in the Colts' games this season but only 6-8 for those matchups involving the Chiefs. When these teams met last season, Indianapolis won 20-13 to cover as 4.5-point favorites – the O/U in that one was set at 41.5.
Definitely a mixed bag of results for the Colts over the last six weeks or so.
During that span they've beaten Tennessee and Houston twice while also topping Denver at home. Things haven't been all rosy though, as Indianapolis has dropped games versus Cincinnati, Arizona and St. Louis.
There's no mistaking how dominant the Colts looked last weekend though in their 25-3 win over the struggling Texans. Indianapolis racked up 152 rushing yards (331 total) and held Houston to 239 total yards of offense.
Andrew Luck didn't have an outstanding game or anything but he didn't need to. He hit 19-of-32 passes for 180 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. Griff Whalen and Trent Richardson each found the endzone.
The Colts have now alternated wins and losses over their last seven games. Will they be able to stop that trend with a second straight victory this Sunday?
Kansas City Chiefs
Like Indianapolis, the Chiefs were very impressive in Week 15. They went into Oakland and humiliated the Raiders in a 56-31 win – coming in they were favored by as many as 6.5 points at the sportsbooks.
Alex Smith was 17-of-20 for 287 yards and five touchdowns (no picks), but those statistics are a little skewed because of how unstoppable Jamaal Charles was. Charles had eight catches for 195 yards and four receiving touchdowns and also ran for another score.
Kansas City's defense preyed on the mistake-prone Raiders, forcing five interceptions and two lost fumbles.
Despite all of the turnovers, the Chiefs can't be entirely pleased with how they played on the defensive side of the football. They gave up huge chunks of yardage and surrendered 31+ points for the third time in four games.
With a stud quarterback in Luck coming to town, Kansas City will have to stay disciplined and smart. We do think the Chiefs will be even better defensively this Sunday.
The Colts looked really good last weekend, but that hasn't been too tough to do against Houston this season.
A much bigger challenge awaits at Arrowhead this Sunday. Kansas City has looked explosive over the last couple of weeks, scoring a whopping 101 points, and that new-found momentum offensively should help them beat Indianapolis here.
We already knew the Chiefs were the better team defensively, but they've really been clicking under Alex Smith (averaging 41.8 points over their last four games) and their home-field advantage is too significant to ignore.
Meanwhile, Indianapolis is simply too inconsistent for our liking. We never know which version of this team we're going to get, so we feel safer in backing a big Kansas City win in our Week 16 NFL picks.
Pick: Chiefs -6.5