Chicago Bears future odds update
The optimism is in the hope that the Bears can make a run at the playoffs this season under new head coach Marc Trestman. So do their NFL Future Odds tell us anything about the value they will have ATS once the season comes around?
Super Bowl (+2800)
This is a pretty solid price for Chicago. They are ranked the same in the NFL future odds as the Cowboys and the Redskins, and even though I wont go as far to say that they are an undervalued sports pick, they should be a better bet this season. Chicago is a city of optimism and in the past Chicago has been way overvalued by bettors and books alike. This season with a new head coach, a new system and no Brian Urlacher, the thought that the Bears will make the playoffs is still there but not as strong. This team went 7-9 ATS last season and was the worst NFC North team ATS. The Bears were 1-5 ATS against their division in 2012, and that division has gotten tougher.
The Bears are pretty adequately priced here. Once again, they are tied with the Skins and Cowboys and while those two teams are dealing with not being able to sign guys, the Bears have gotten some value in the free agent market this season. They have been drafting and signing linebackers all over the place to make up for the loss of Nick Roach and Urlacher. They also have been trying to improve on offense. They signed Martellus Bennett to play tight end and with all the improvements, I just can’t pull the trigger on the Bears to have any value this season.
Chicago is one of the most inconsistent teams in the NFL and even if Trestman can solve that in year one of his tenure, the growing pains for this team will be seen, and it will probably wipe out any value we thought they had coming in.
The Bears have had one winning ATS season in the last five seasons, and that was in 2012 where they went 9-6-1 ATS depending on the book you were shopping at.
Chicago’s problems ATS last season didn’t curtail from people throwing money at them as big favorites and the Bears not covering. Chicago went 6-6 ATS last season as the favorite. It was when the Bears were playing a superior opponent when they were well overvalued last season. It happened against the Packers twice and the 49ers once. All three times the Bears were slight underdogs and they got beat down by multiple scores.
If we just keep our betting with the Bears when they play bad teams, we might end up successful with our NFL Picks. Last season the Bears won four of their first five games both SU and ATS before going 6-5 SU and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games.