The Chiefs return to Arrowhead after receiving a hard lesson from the Broncos last week. Will they get the better of San Diego in this AFC West clash and become your NFL pick?
The Chiefs are 6-4 ATS this season, while the Chargers are 5-4-1 ATS. Oddsmakers have Kansas City favored by anywhere from 4.5 to 5.5 points, depending on which sportsbook you use. This is why it's crucial to use a lot of different sites in order to get the best possible NFL betting value out there.
Looking at the odds, we see a total of 41.5 on the board. The UNDER has been hitting with regularity for both teams, going 8-2 for Kansas City and 6-4 for San Diego.
San Diego Chargers
Everything was looking good for the Chargers back in October, as they had two straight (over Indianapolis and Jacksonville) and three of four heading into a road game against Robert Griffin III and the Redskins.
However, San Diego completely botched the ending there and lost to Washington. They then fell to Denver (28-20) and of course Miami (20-16) this past weekend.
The Chargers actually moved the ball pretty well against the Dolphins, but they couldn't capitalize in the red zone. Penalties were also a killer, with San Dego getting penalized 10 times for a total of 76 yards.
In the end, Philip Rivers had 298 yards with one TD and one INT, while Ryan Mathews ran for 127 yards on 19 attempts. Antonio Gates caught the touchdown pass and finished with four receptions for 52 yards.
Overall this season, the Chargers have been good offensively, ranking seventh in total yards. They're averaging 287.9 passing yards per game, the fourth-best mark in the NFL. That said, the defense (#27) has been poor and that's putting it mildly.
Kansas City Chiefs
All good things have to come to an end eventually, and last weekend was Kansas City's time.
After a stunning 9-0 start, the Chiefs lost by 10 points to the Broncos in Denver. Though the statistics may suggest otherwise, they were no match for Peyton Manning and company offensively.
QB Alex Smith was 21-of-45 for 230 yards and two touchdowns and added 52 yards on five rushes. Dwayne Bowe was targeted 14 times but finished with only four receptions for 57 yards and a score, while Anthony Fasano caught the other touchdown. Jamaal Charles was held in check, running 16 times for 78 yards.
There's a reason Kansas City came in as the clear-cut underdog. They gave a good effort, but Denver proved they're the superior team, plain and simple.
The good news for Chiefs fans? They're back at Arrowhead, where they've gone a perfect 5-0 this season, with wins over Dallas, Houston, Oakland, Cleveland and the New York Giants.
As tempting as it is to go with Kansas City to bounce back and beat San Diego (SU and ATS), we feel there's more value with a total selection here.
Teams have found it hard to move the ball against the Chiefs in their stadium. Opponents have averaged a mere 12.6 points at Arrowhead, and we expect Kansas City's imposing defense to get up for this one after allowing a season-high 27 points last weekend.
The Chiefs would be smart to try to establish Jamaal Charles early and often and that should help them control the clock.
The OVER has hit in the last two head-to-head meetings between these division rivals, but we look for the UNDER to come through this time around for my NFL pick.
Pick: UNDER 41.5