NFL Picks: Chargers are Best Value on the Board for Week 6

Jason Lake

Saturday, October 17, 2015 9:01 PM UTC

Saturday, Oct. 17, 2015 9:01 PM UTC

The San Diego Chargers haven't covered since the season-opener. That's one of several reasons the Chargers are the biggest dogs on the NFL odds board for Week 6.

Jason's 2015 record as of Oct. 17: 18-12 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 12-19 Total

It's time once again for the most important awards ceremony on the planet, the weekly BeeVee Awards, where we anoint one lucky football team as the Best Value on the Board. Yes, more important than the Oscars – who watches movies anymore? Definitely more important than the Grammys – who buys music anymore? Don't even get us started on the Emmys. There's only one show on TV that matters, and that's football.

With that in mind, here are the BeeVee nominees for Week 6:

Denver vs. Cleveland +4 (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS)
Washington +7 vs. N.Y. Jets (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX)
Miami vs. Tennessee –1 (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS)
Carolina +7 vs. Seattle (4:05 p.m. ET, FOX)
San Diego +10.5 vs. Green Bay (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS)

And the winner is: the San Diego Chargers! Here to accept the award is team president and son-of-the-owner Dean Spanos, who's... what's that? Apparently Mr. Spanos is in Los Angeles right now, and he's left a forwarding address. We'll be sure he receives his award in time for the 2017 season.


Hold the Line
At first blush, the Chargers (2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS) might not look like a value NFL pick. Yes, they are the biggest underdogs on the board this week, but they haven't covered since beating the Detroit Lions (+3.5 away) 33-28 in the season-opener. Injuries on the offensive line prompted us to successfully fade San Diego in Week 4 and Week 5. Why stop now?

It's a simple case of “buy low, sell high.” While the Chargers have struggled to beat the NFL odds, they may have turned the corner when it comes to their health issues. LG Orlando Franklin and RT Chris Hairston are both listed as questionable for Sunday with ankle injuries, but they put in limited practices on Friday. LT King Dunlap and center Chris Watt are still out with concussions; however, San Diego should still have five warm bodies up front this week.


Cheese, or Cheez?
The Packers (5-0 SU and ATS) provide the “sell high” half of the equation. They've obviously played well thus far; Football Outsiders has Green Bay ranked No. 3 overall (No. 5 offense, No. 4 defense, No. 13 special teams) in efficiency through Week 5. But the Packers weren't quite as impressive in their last two wins, over the San Francisco 49ers (+7.5 at home) and the St. Louis Rams (+8.5 away). Only three teams have faced a weaker strength of schedule this year.

Factor in that San Diego has only recently welcomed TE Antonio Gates back into the fold, plus the chance of getting the Chargers at +11, and we've got ourselves a classic BeeVee winner. They're sure to be a big hit in L.A.

NFL Picks: Take the Chargers +11 (–115) at Bovada

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