It’s once again time for football! I’ve been successful in my player prop betting picks this season, so for championship weekend, I have three picks from bet365 sportsbook that I’m releasing for free.
Cam Newton O/U 38.5 Rushing Yards
Cam Newton has taken a huge leap as a passer in 2015, but his legs still work really, really well. He is a force in the red zone with his legs, and against the Cardinals in the championship game this Sunday, I think we see Newton run the ball a little bit more. While they have slipped up just slightly over their last two games, the Cardinals secondary is still really good. They limited QBs to less than 4000 total passing yards during the regular season, and if they are covering the Panther receivers well in this game, Newton may not have a better option than taking off and running the football on broken plays.
This could play into our hands with his yards total though, and the over could end up being a fantastic play. Only three teams gave up more rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season than the Cardinals, and while they get some good practice against the likes of Russell Wilson during the regular season, the Cardinals likely gave up those yards because of their solid passing defense. Newton would have cashed the over in this one in eight of his 17 games this season, and while most of his big runs came on the road this season, the weather, the Cards’ defense and state of the field might warrant him taking off a few more times on Sunday. He rushed the ball 11 times last week against the Seahawks, and another double digit rush attempt game for him might lead to the over being the play.
My NFL Pick: OVER 38.5 (-125)
Michael Floyd O/U 60.5 Receiving Yards
The Cardinals have a wealth of good receivers, and one of those receivers is Michael Floyd. While Floyd’s season got off to a slow start thanks to an injury in training camp, he came on later in the season to help the Cardinals fend off the rest of the NFC. Now he heads out on the road into Carolina, but he will also face his toughest matchup of the season in Josh Norman. Batman has been stellar this year and with how the Panthers play defense, I expect Floyd to see Norman opposite him a lot in this one.
Last week Floyd was pretty bad against the Packers, seeing seven targets but only catching three of them for 26 yards. If the Packers can take away Floyd and the Cardinals deep ball, Norman and the potential weather in Charlotte this weekend will definitely take it away. At 60 yards receiving, Floyd’s yards total is being way overvalued by Bet365 and the other sportsbooks this weekend. He only has four receptions in his last two games for 41 yards; so don’t expect a big game this week.
My NFL Pick: UNDER 60.5 (-135)
Must Read: Sunday's Ultimate NFL Betting Handbook
Tom Brady O/U 292.5 Passing Yards
The final NFL pick of the day is on Tom Brady, who comes in with a yards total of just under 300 against the Broncos. Denver’s pass defense has been very good this season, but because of the lack of a running game the Patriots have had this season, Brady is going to have to throw the ball a lot this week. He tossed the pigskin over 40 times last week, and if he can get that kind of volume again, even though it seems kind of square, I am going with the over for Brady and company. In games where Brady had at least 40 pass attempts this season, he has thrown for 300 or more yards in six out of seven games.
Granted, the one game he did not throw for 300 yards with at least 40 pass attempts was against the Broncos this season and Brock Osweiler. However, the Broncos dominated the time of possession in that game 36 minutes to 26, and in previous matchups, Brady has decimated the Broncos’ defense. Only the AFC Championship game two years ago and the regular season matchup this season has Brady not thrown for at least 300 yards, and in one last season he went for more than 400. I don’t see Denver dominating TOP with Peyton Manning under center, so take the over.
My NFL Pick: OVER 292.5 (-120)