NFL Picks: Cardinals vs. Broncos in Preseason Week 4

Jordan Sharp

Wednesday, August 28, 2013 3:12 PM UTC

Wednesday, Aug. 28, 2013 3:12 PM UTC

The close of the preseason is finally upon us, and real football will start to take place just a week from now. One of the final games of Thursday night will be the Broncos hosting the Cardinals in the preseason finale.

The NFL odds for this contest are a 'Pick 'em', with a total of 38.5. What side of these betting lines should we favor in this even game?

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Week 3

Bruce Arians and the Cardinals suffered their first preseason loss in Week 3 to the Chargers, and while they didn’t play bad, they really didn’t do much good either. The starters failed to score in the first half and got their lone touchdown almost halfway through the 3rd quarter. While Carson Palmer and the starters won’t see the field in this game, it is a bit concerning for Cardinals fans for this season.

The Broncos edged out St. Louis in Week 3 by one point, and now head into the regular season with one of the best teams in the NFL. While those starters won’t see any action tonight, they did play well last week. Peyton Manning went 25/34 with 234 yards, a touchdown and a pick in his work, but his backup Brock Osweiller did not play well, throwing a pick and losing a fumble.

If that is what we are about to see from him in this game, I think a lower scoring game is pretty probable. Behind Carson Palmer is Drew Stanton, who isn’t necessarily a gunslinger, and he too threw an interception in Week 3. This is just one of the reasons why I think this total is way too high, and a play on the ‘Under’ is probably our best sports betting value in Week 4 of the preseason.

Low scores regardless

Even with the starters getting some playing time in the first three weeks, the scores for both of these teams have been pretty low this preseason. Arizona is only averaging 12 points per game this preseason under their new offense, and even though it may be because they don’t want to show their hand too much, do you think they will open it up with Drew Stanton under center most of the game?

Even the Broncos have had a tough go at scoring the football this preseason, as they are only averaging 16 points per game. It was only ten before last week. For the Cards, they have been playing solid defense regardless of who’s in the game. Arizona is giving up just over 10 points allowed this preseason.


The Sharp Pick

With Arizona’s stellar defense this preseason and not so good offense, they have cashed the ‘Under’ in all three of their preseason games. With Manning not playing this game, the scoring might go back to like it was in Weeks 1 and 2 for Denver. They only mustered up 10 points in each of those first two preseason games, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see less in this one. Between the likely bad quarterbacking in this game, along with it being Week 4, I think the ‘Under’ is our safest NFL pick. 38.5 is too many points for the backups and undrafted free agents playing in this game.

NFL Pick: Bet the Cardinals/Broncos game UNDER 38.5 points at William Hill 

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