NFL Picks: Capper has Early Lean on Cowboys & Bucs Going Over 43

Ross Benjamin

Friday, November 13, 2015 4:27 PM UTC

Friday, Nov. 13, 2015 4:27 PM UTC

We’re going to examine the total in Sunday’s NFL contest between Dallas and Tampa Bay. Will this turn into a high scoring affair or be a defensive struggle? Go inside in order to find out.

Cowboys and Bucs in Tampa
The Buccaneers (3-5) and Cowboys (2-6) will square off on Sunday in a NFC matchup between two struggling teams. The opening kickoff at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida is slated for 1:00 PM ET. Early NFL betting odds (9/9) indicate that Tampa Bay ranges from a 1.0 to 2.0 point favorite. At the time of this writing, the total in this contest was either 43.0 or 43.5. These teams haven’t met since 2012, and if you’re keeping score at home, Dallas came away with a currently irrelevant 16-10 win.


Nightmare First Half of the Season
The Dallas Cowboys began the season 2-0. Unfortunately in the latter of those two wins, starting quarterback Tony Romo broke his collarbone. Romo is slated to return for the November 11th game against Miami. However, in the following six games after he went down, Dallas has gone 0-6 straight up and 1-5 ATS. Former Cleveland first round draft choice Brandon Weeden started the first three games of the losing streak, and he was ineffective. Enter veteran backup journeyman Matt Cassel who was acquired in a Week 3 trade from Buffalo. Although Cassel has been a bit of an upgrade from Weeden, he’s still gone 0-3 as the Cowboys starter. Dallas lost those three games to the Giants, Seahawks, and Eagles by a combined 14 points. It must be noted, Cassel threw a pick six in the 7 point loss to the Giants, and in the 6 point overtime loss to Philadelphia. On a positive note, they were able to amass 411 yards or more in two of Cassel’s three starts. The Cowboys are allowing an unimpressive 25.5 points per game in 2015.


High Scoring Home Games
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gone over the total in all four home games this season. There was a combined average of 58.7 points scored per game during those four contests. Rookie quarterback Jameis Winston is improving with each start, and certainly looking like a #1 overall pick in recent games.


Final Thoughts and Pick
Neither of these defenses will be able to fully exploit the flaws of either offense. Darren McFadden has been rejuvenated since becoming the Cowboys feature running back. In Dallas’ last three games, McFadden has rushed for 333 yards. Despite his pick six against Philadelphia last Sunday night, Matt Cassel had an otherwise strong game. Cassel had three touchdown tosses and 299 yards passing while completing 65.8% of his attempts. Dez Bryant showed he was once again starting to get healthy, evidenced by his 5 catches for 105 yards and a touchdown against the Eagles.

Tampa Bay is averaging 26.0 points and 386.8 yards per game during their previous five contests. The Bucs have also allowed 31 points or more in four of those last five games.

I like this game to be a high scoring affair, and one of my early NFL picks this week will echo that statement.

NFL Pick: Play Cowboys & Bucs to go OVER the total of 43.0 at 5Dimes

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